Amid ongoing global disruptions, freight markets remain under pressure from tariff fallout, capacity shifts, and operational bottlenecks.
Ocean carriers are navigating severe lane imbalances, air cargo is shaped by Asia-driven eCommerce surges, and overland networks face divergent conditions in Europe and North America.
Global Forwarding continues to work closely with shippers to apply agile, multimodal strategies that will help to prepare and insulate them from further rate and schedule volatility, as we enter the second half of the year.
Ocean Freight
Ocean freight markets are navigating two sharply contrasting realities. On transpacific routes, oversupply has taken hold, with Far East–US West Coast spot rates falling over six weeks. Capacity additions following the US tariff pause overshot demand, forcing carriers to blank sailings. Meanwhile, Far East–US East Coast rates fell 27% as delayed capacity adjustments rippled through networks.
In contrast, Asia–Europe trades have been tightening. Shanghai–North Europe spot rates rose 18% in early July, as vessel diversions, ongoing Red Sea reroutes, and alliance reshuffles squeezed capacity. North European ports, especially Rotterdam and Hamburg, face mounting congestion, with equipment repositioning costs rising over 40% compared to pre-pandemic levels.
Scheduled capacity from China to South America also surged, up 17 million TEU year-on-year, although East Coast South America remains constrained. Rising bunker fuel prices (~10% month-on-month) are adding a layer of cost pressure. Shippers are advised to secure space early and track shifting service patterns closely through Q3.
Air Freight
Air freight markets are defined by regional contrasts and tariff-driven volatility. Asia–US lanes remain the standout, with Vietnam–US spot rates up 147% year-on-year, China–US up 38%, and Singapore–US more than doubling. This surge reflects front-loading behaviour ahead of regulatory changes, combined with eCommerce and fashion flows.
Europe–North America, by contrast, is softening. Frankfurt outbound rates fell nearly 6% month-on-month in June, although London Heathrow saw a 25% mid-month surge driven by tactical demand spikes. Global tonnage rose 11% year-on-year in early July, despite a temporary dip following US holiday closures.
Capacity constraints persist. Freighter redeployment has prioritised intra-Asia and Latin America, while OEM delivery delays continue to cap wide-body fleet growth. Load factors remain elevated (80–90%), sustaining spot rate premiums even as jet fuel prices have fallen year-on-year. Shippers are increasingly blending long-term contracts with flexible spot coverage to navigate H2 uncertainty.
Overland
United States
The US truckload market is moving through a complex mix of regulatory, seasonal, and structural shifts. The recent resumption of English language proficiency enforcement for drivers has raised questions about capacity impact, but so far the effect has been minimal.
Dry van rates are forecast to rise 4% year-on-year, but Q3 typically brings seasonal softening after the produce and beverage peaks. Refrigerated rates are projected to remain flat year-on-year, though regional hotspots are tightening — particularly in the Southeast, where South Georgia and North Florida’s produce harvests have stretched outbound capacity.
In the Midwest, post-holiday disruptions have stabilised, but tightening is expected through August as produce shifts northward. Western US markets, like Northern California, remain tight due to strawberry and vegetable volumes, while the Pacific Northwest faces elevated inbound costs amid limited outbound flows.
Shippers are advised to monitor regional shifts closely, especially as the summer peak winds down, and to maintain flexibility in sourcing and routing strategies to navigate localised capacity pressures.
Europe
European road freight markets are under mixed pressure. While Germany’s economic rebound boosted haulage demand, the June TEG Index slipped 1.25% as haulage volumes dropped 13% and courier flows remained flat. Articulated vehicle availability tightened sharply, down 10.9%, driving price increases despite diesel prices easing 9% year-on-year.
Driver shortages remain severe, with 426,000 vacancies across Europe, nearly double last year’s levels. HGV registrations rose 16.3%, but fleet expansion lags underlying demand. Manufacturers and retailers are increasingly relying on blended contract/spot strategies to balance stability with flexibility, as tariff and regulatory uncertainties weigh on trade flows.
With the global freight landscape shaped by diverging capacity conditions, tariff fallout, and persistent labour and infrastructure constraints, the need for proactive, data-driven logistics strategies has never been greater.
For tailored insights or support optimising your supply chain amid these challenges, contact the Global Forwarding team today.
