Global trade conditions remained subdued in August 2025, with export orders contracting for a fifth consecutive month. However the pace of decline slowed, and manufacturing output returned to growth, supported by tariff-driven front-loading, though stockpiling in the US adds risks to year-end demand.
Developed economies recorded the sharpest downturns, while emerging markets showed easing contraction. Among the major economies, India stood out with modest export growth, while the UK posted the steepest fall despite stronger domestic GDP and PMI readings.
Freight markets reflect this uneven backdrop. In ocean shipping, oversupply and tariff uncertainty continue to weigh on Asia–Europe, while transpacific lanes remain comparatively resilient. Air cargo is buoyed by Asia-linked flows, particularly into Europe and India, though North America has softened and rate volatility persists. US truck pricing rose in August even as freight demand remained subdued, highlighting shippers’ efforts to secure capacity ahead of potential future needs.
Ocean Freight
The global container shipping market remains volatile, shaped by tariffs, oversupply, and carrier capacity management.
Demand has weakened on Asia–Europe routes, where spot rates have fallen over 10% on key lanes such as Shanghai–Rotterdam and Shanghai–Genoa. Year-on-year, Asia–North Europe spot levels are down nearly 60%, while Mediterranean pricing has halved since June. By contrast, the Transpacific has shown resilience, with rates climbing 6% into Los Angeles and 2% into New York, supported by general rate increases, though these gains are currently under pressure, with prices falling.
Global container demand, up 7% year to date by May, has since flattened under tariff uncertainty, while fleet growth of 7% continues to outpace demand, especially as new mega-ships are delivered.
Asia–North America volumes are down 7%, though exports to Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East remain strong. With global benchmarks more than 50% below last year and carrier EBIT halving in Q2, blank sailings remain critical to rate stability.
Air Freight
Air cargo markets continue to show resilience despite tariff disruption and shifting flows.
Global tonnage grew 3% year on year in August, with Asia Pacific leading at 7% in July, supported by eCommerce and technology exports. European demand also held firm, particularly for pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and industrial goods. India–Europe flows remain buoyant, with pharmaceuticals, apparel, and auto parts sustaining elevated demand and pricing, while ocean disruptions push more volume into air. By contrast, North America softened, with China and Hong Kong exports down 5%, offset by gains from Vietnam and Thailand.
Capacity has broadly kept pace, rising 4% year on year, keeping load factors at 56%. Pricing diverges: Japan–Europe spot rates fell 10% in August, while Korea and Vietnam rose by 5%. India–Europe remains above average, supported by surcharges. Despite a 3% year-on-year decline in global spot rates, pricing remains elevated versus pre-pandemic norms, underlining structural strength.
Trucking
US truck pricing rose in August even as freight demand remained subdued, highlighting shippers’ efforts to secure capacity ahead of potential future needs. Truckload rates, measured by the long-distance Producer Price Index (PPI), increased 1.8% month on month, the sharpest rise since December 2024, though still 0.2% lower year on year. The index has gained 2.7% since April, supported by West Coast import frontloading and seasonal produce volumes.
Less-than-truckload (LTL) pricing continued its strong upward trajectory, with the PPI climbing 1.5% from July and 10.5% year on year. LTL rates have risen 16.7% since July 2023, the month before Yellow’s collapse reshaped the sector. By comparison, overall for-hire trucking costs grew just 0.8% year on year.
While softer shipment counts hint at weaker demand, the data shows shippers maintaining contracts and keeping carriers whole. Sustained recovery, however, will likely require stronger consumer-driven freight demand.
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EMAIL Adam Davies, Global Forwarding Ltd. Vice President.
