The Chinese New Year period, which was once a predictable seasonal slowdown, has become a prolonged window of volatility, shaped by strong late-cycle demand, aggressive carrier pricing strategies and capacity management.
Chinese New Year officially begins on 17 February, with the public holiday running from 15 to 23 February. However, its impact on global supply chains is felt weeks in advance, as factories slow production, exporters accelerate shipments and carriers adjust networks to protect utilisation.
Carrier booking data points to solid demand through December and into January, with expectations that volumes could remain firm well into February. As a result, the traditional pre-holiday rush is already underway.
This early demand strength is reflected in market benchmarks. Ahead of Christmas, Drewry’s World Container Index recorded a third consecutive week of gains, with spot rates rising 26% Shanghai-Los Angeles, 20% Shanghai-New York, 10% on Shanghai–Genoa and 8% on Shanghai–Rotterdam. Carriers are interpreting these signals as justification to reinforce pricing.
Peak season surcharges return
While a proposed transpacific Jan. 1 GRI is not holding, carriers have moved quickly to implement new peak season surcharges (PSS) and higher freight all kinds (FAK) rates on European lanes:
- Maersk has announced a $1,500 per 40ft PSS on Asia–Mediterranean shipments from 5 January
- CMA CGM has introduced a $250 per 20ft PSS on Asia–North Europe, alongside new FAK rates effective 1 January
- MSC has set new FAK levels of $3,700 per 40ft to North Europe and $5,500 per 40ft to the Mediterranean
Underlying demand remains supportive. Asia–Europe volumes reached 21.95 million teu by the end of October, up 8.6% year on year, giving carriers confidence to hold pricing, at least in the short term.
Capacity front-loading raises disruption risk
While demand has strengthened, the more significant change lies in how carriers are managing capacity.
Rather than maintaining relatively flat deployments through the pre-CNY period, carriers have increasingly front-loaded capacity into late Q4 and early Q1, followed by sharp withdrawals as the holiday approaches. According to Sea-Intelligence, this shift creates intense short-term volume surges, followed by sudden capacity gaps — increasing the likelihood of congestion, rolled cargo and missed cut-offs.
Key trade-lane patterns include:
- Asia–North Europe: Capacity projected to rise nearly 50% above baseline, reflecting aggressive inventory buffering ahead of factory shutdowns
- Asia–Mediterranean: Peak capacity more than 60% above baseline, highlighting heightened volatility on secondary as well as core trades
- Asia–North America West Coast: A late-season surge of around 30%, followed by rapid withdrawal just before CNY
- Asia–North America East Coast: Capacity remains elevated, peaking around 25% above baseline, before post-holiday adjustments
This high-impact approach means blank sailings now tend to amplify disruption, rather than smooth seasonal flows.
What shippers should plan for
Heading into Chinese New Year, rates should remain relatively steady, supported by peak season surcharges, disciplined capacity control and sustained demand. However, once factories reopen and deferred cargo returns, pricing and space availability are likely to become more volatile, particularly if demand rebounds faster than carriers reinstate withdrawn capacity.
For shippers, the highest risk is not limited to the holiday itself, but the six-to-eight-week window around it, when schedules, capacity and pricing remain fluid.
Global Forwarding works closely with customers to secure space early, manage blank-sailing exposure and adapt routing strategies through the Chinese New Year period and beyond, helping importers and exporters stay ahead of disruption rather than react to it.
