Entering 2026, freight markets are shaped by cautiously improving economic conditions alongside persistent operational constraints across the UK, Europe, and United States.
Retail demand is more predictable, inventories are better aligned with consumption, and confidence across goods-led supply chains has improved modestly.
Despite this firmer macro backdrop, transport markets remain defined less by demand growth and more by execution risk. Across ocean, air, and road freight, capacity discipline, regulatory pressure, and network reliability continue to shape shipper outcomes.
Disruption, congestion, and carrier behavior are limiting effective capacity in multiple modes, keeping pricing sensitive to short-term shifts in demand and seasonal pressure rather than longer-term fundamentals.
Ocean
Ocean freight markets enter early 2026 shaped by pre–Chinese New Year demand, ongoing disruption, and disciplined capacity management. Asia–Europe volumes remain resilient, supported by front-loaded shipments and constrained effective capacity, while transpacific demand is more uneven following earlier retail-driven surges and inventory rebalancing.
Although global fleet growth continues at around 4%, an estimated 15% of effective capacity remains absorbed by Suez diversions, port congestion, and extended transit times. More than 2.5 million TEU are still tied up in congested ports worldwide, suppressing schedule reliability. While limited Red Sea transits have resumed, a stable return to Suez routings is unlikely before the second half of 2026.
Rates have rebounded from mid-2025 lows ahead of Chinese New Year, but pricing power remains uneven. Post-holiday softening is expected, with volatility persisting where capacity is actively managed through blank sailings and short-notice rate initiatives.
Air
Air freight markets begin 2026 on firmer footing following a stronger-than-expected close to 2025, with cargo tonnages rising by an average of 4% year-on-year. The YoY demand improvements were led by a 16% increase in the Middle East and South Asia region, while Asia Pacific was up 8% and North America 7%.
However, peak-season momentum has faded quickly. Post-holiday volumes softened into January, and capacity adjustments have limited further rate increases. E-commerce growth, which previously drove incremental demand, is showing signs of moderation across several major trade lanes.
Wide-body belly capacity continues to recover, and freighter deployment remains stable, keeping capacity broadly sufficient. Average worldwide spot freight rates slipped at the start of January and currently sit around 10% below their average level in mid-December, but slightly above the market average rate this time last year.
It’s worth noting, however, that 2025 began relatively slowly, with year-on-year growth averaging 2% last January and February, and therefore early signs of year-on-year growth in 2026 should be seen in that context.
Trucking
United States
US truckload markets are entering 2026 with signs of tightening capacity after a brief surge in the December spot market carried into early January. While peak season underperformed expectations, underlying capacity remains fragile, and further tightening could emerge quickly if industrial output or manufacturing demand improves. Regulatory enforcement is also reshaping the market, prompting some shippers to favor asset-based carriers and consolidate volumes with fewer providers.
Contract rate negotiations for 2026 are reflecting this shift, with modest increases becoming more common, although competitive bidding remains active. Less-than-truckload demand softened toward year-end, while intermodal volumes declined despite improving revenue per load. Overall, US road freight conditions point toward firmer pricing, greater emphasis on compliance, and a renewed focus on carrier reliability rather than aggressive rate competition.
UK & Europe
UK and European road freight markets enter 2026 in a finely balanced position. Capacity remains constrained across key domestic and cross-border corridors, supporting firm pricing, while cautious fleet expansion and disciplined carrier behavior are limiting excess supply. Seasonal demand patterns and ongoing network inefficiencies continue to influence availability, particularly for time-sensitive and specialist movements.
At the same time, easing fuel costs are helping to moderate cost pressure, preventing sharper rate escalation despite tight capacity. Consumer demand remains steady rather than expansionary, limiting volume-driven upside and reinforcing the importance of stable contract freight. As a result, pricing is holding firm rather than accelerating aggressively.
For shippers, success in 2026 will depend less on short-term rate optimization and more on securing dependable capacity, maintaining flexibility, and building resilient carrier partnerships across increasingly constrained European road networks.
Our strong carrier relationships and global purchasing power keep costs competitive, even in shifting markets. Paired with real-time, data-verified tracking and proactive purchase order management, we deliver the visibility and control you need to plan ahead and adapt fast.
Contact us to learn how disciplined planning, modal expertise, and proactive carrier management can help protect your supply chain performance in 2026. Whether navigating congestion, regulatory pressure, or seasonal volatility, our teams are ready to support your next move with confidence.
