The US import peak is proving longer and more resilient than expected, as delayed cargo from Asia combines with sustained consumer demand to keep container volumes elevated into September.
Earlier expectations that the busiest part of the transpacific season would largely be over by now have been overtaken by events. Repeated weather disruption at major Chinese ports and restrictions affecting Panama Canal transits have delayed and rerouted vessels, pushing cargo originally expected earlier in the summer further into the autumn.
At the same time, US retailers continue to replenish inventories despite tariffs, inflation and elevated energy costs. The combination means September could now become the busiest US import month of 2026.
September moves to the centre of the peak
The latest “Global Port Tracker” forecast projects that over 2.3 million TEUs will pass through the major US ports during September, to establish a new high for the year.
The change is significant because earlier forecasts suggested the traditional peak season was already winding down. Instead, operational disruption has extended the cycle, while underlying retail demand has remained sufficiently strong to support continued inbound volumes.
July had already demonstrated the strength of the market. US imports from Asia reached 1.74 million TEUs during the month, their highest level of 2026 so far, while imports from China climbed to almost 950 thousand TEUs, also a year-to-date high.
Disruption reshapes cargo flows
Some of September’s strength reflects cargo moving later than originally planned rather than a sudden surge in new demand.
A succession of typhoons affecting key Chinese load ports has interrupted vessel schedules, while prolonged low-water conditions and increasing draft restrictions at the Panama Canal have added another complication for transpacific services.
Some vessels have been rerouted as a result, adding time and complexity to schedules and potentially affecting equipment positioning, connections and onward delivery planning.
For shippers, headline vessel capacity therefore tells only part of the story. When disruption lengthens voyages or delays vessels at origin, the amount of capacity effectively available within the network can tighten even when nominal fleet capacity remains unchanged.
Retailers still have cargo to move
The US retail sector also entered this year’s peak differently. Importers brought significant volumes forward during the spring and summer, with an early peak developing from May as businesses sought to position merchandise ahead of tariff deadlines and potential increases in import costs.
That front-loading initially supported expectations of a quieter late summer and autumn.
However, not all seasonal merchandise arrived during the earlier surge. Retailers are continuing to bring inventory into the US to support consumer demand and prepare for the holiday period, helping maintain pressure on transpacific supply chains.
This resilience is particularly notable against a backdrop of higher tariffs, inflationary pressure and elevated fuel costs.
Q4 volumes expected to ease
The extended September peak does not necessarily signal equally strong volumes throughout the remainder of the year.
The latest “Global Port Tracker” outlook has revised its forecasts for October, November and December down from previous expectations, suggesting the delayed peak could give way to softer import activity during the final quarter.
The first projection for January 2027 also points towards moderation, with imports forecast at just over 2 million TEUs, approximately 1% below the same month a year earlier.
This creates a more uneven outlook for the transpacific market: significant near-term pressure driven by delayed cargo and continued retail replenishment, followed by the prospect of easing volumes later in Q4.
With September now potentially becoming the busiest import month of 2026, maintaining flexibility across routings, sailing options and inland connections will remain important as the transpacific market moves towards Golden Week and the final quarter.
Global Forwarding: flexibility when the market moves
Extended peak-season demand and continuing disruption make early visibility and flexible routing increasingly important. Global Forwarding combines an extensive Asian network with US coverage, strong carrier relationships and multimodal capabilities, giving shippers access to alternative routings and options when schedules, capacity or market conditions change.
From origin management and consolidation to ocean freight, customs and onward delivery, our teams in Asia and the US can help you build greater flexibility into your transpacific supply chain and respond quickly when disruption changes the plan.
Talk to Global Forwarding about keeping your US-bound cargo moving through an extended and increasingly unpredictable peak season.
