The global freight market enters September with demand proving more resilient than expected, but with significant differences emerging between regions, transport modes and individual trade lanes.
The US economy remains comparatively resilient, supported by consumer spending and substantial investment in AI, data centres and associated equipment. This is translating directly into freight demand: US imports increased during July, with capital-goods imports reaching record levels and significant volumes continuing to move through Asian and North American supply chains.
UK goods exports increased during Q2 but weakened again in June, while imports are expected to grow faster than exports during 2026. The EU faces a similar pattern, with stronger import growth, while exporters contend with a stronger euro, US tariffs and competitiveness pressures.
Against this backdrop, freight conditions are becoming increasingly trade-lane specific. Ocean markets are balancing easing seasonal demand against congestion and carrier capacity management, air cargo continues to outperform typical summer patterns, and road freight costs are rising as fuel and capacity pressures intensify.
Ocean freight
Rates diverge as carriers adjust capacity
Ocean freight moved in different directions across the major East–West trades during August, as resilient Transpacific demand contrasted with softer Asia–Europe conditions.
The Transpacific strengthened towards the end of the month. By 3 September, Shanghai–Los Angeles spot rates had increased 5% week on week, while Shanghai–New York rose 3%.
Blank sailings have played an important role. Drewry identified 49 blank sailings across 724 scheduled East–West services between 18 August and 21 September. Almost half were on the Transpacific eastbound, with 31% affecting Asia–North Europe and Mediterranean services.
A gradual return to the Suez Canal is seeing selected services switching away from the longer Cape of Good Hope routing effectively release vessel capacity and reduce voyage costs, creating scope for further downward pressure.
Operational disruption is preventing the market from becoming straightforward, however. Repeated typhoons have affected Chinese ports and contributed to congestion and schedule disruption, while industrial action and congestion in Northern Europe have created additional backlogs. Panama Canal restrictions and continued geopolitical tension around the Strait of Hormuz add further uncertainty.
For shippers, softer pricing on some Asia–Europe services creates opportunities, but headline rates do not tell the whole story. Blank sailings, port congestion and changing routings can quickly tighten individual departures, making early booking and flexible carrier and routing options particularly important around Golden Week.
Key points
- Shanghai–Los Angeles increased 5% and Shanghai–New York 3% in the week to 3 September.
- Asia–Europe pricing is easing as seasonal demand moderates and selected Suez routings restore effective capacity.
- Around 7% of scheduled East–West services have been removed across recent five-week planning windows.
- 68% of the 47 blank sailings currently expected between 7 September and 11 October are concentrated on the eastbound Transpacific.
Air freight
Summer demand stays stronger than seasonal norms
Air cargo maintained its momentum through August, with demand remaining unusually strong for a period that traditionally brings softer volumes and additional passenger belly capacity.
Worldwide tonnages increased around 5–6% year on year during August, continuing the growth recorded in July. Capacity increased much more slowly, leaving utilisation higher than last year and helping to support pricing despite some month-on-month easing.
Global rate levels therefore remained firm through the summer lull. While spot pricing has gradually moved down from the highs reached earlier in the year, the market remains significantly above 2025 levels, supported by demand growth, higher jet-fuel costs and constrained capacity on selected corridors.
China and Hong Kong–Europe remain among the weakest markets following July’s changes to EU low-value import rules. Hong Kong–Europe tonnages were around 30% lower year on year during August, reflecting the corridor’s heavy exposure to e-commerce. Mainland China–Europe volumes proved more resilient and began showing signs of stabilisation towards the end of the month.
The Transpacific presents a very different picture. China and Hong Kong volumes to the US remained well above last year, while demand for semiconductors, electronics and equipment associated with AI and data-centre investment continues to support airfreight volumes.
As the market moves towards the traditional Q4 peak, demand growth continuing to exceed capacity growth means conditions could tighten quickly on individual corridors. High-tech volumes, e-commerce adjustments, fuel prices and the seasonal reduction in passenger capacity will be important factors to watch.
Key points
- Worldwide air cargo demand increased around 5–6% year on year during August.
- Capacity growth remained below demand growth, supporting utilisation and keeping pricing relatively firm.
- China and Hong Kong–Europe volumes remain under pressure following changes to EU low-value import rules, although signs of stabilisation are emerging.
- Transpacific demand remains strong, supported by e-commerce, semiconductors and AI-related technology investment.
Road freight
Fuel and tightening availability push transport costs higher
Road freight conditions strengthened during August as seasonal capacity constraints combined with sharply higher fuel costs, creating renewed pricing pressure in the UK.
The TEG Road Transport Price Index increased 1.9% during August and stood almost 7% higher than a year earlier. The change was driven predominantly by haulage, where prices increased more than 4% month on month and over 8% year on year.
Capacity was a significant factor. Overall transport availability fell almost 14% during August, while haulage availability dropped more than 20%, reflecting the traditional impact of summer holidays and the August bank holiday. Haulage demand fell only marginally, creating a tighter balance between available vehicles and freight.
Fuel added another source of pressure. UK diesel prices increased more than 8% during August and stood almost 28% above their level a year earlier as elevated crude-oil prices and uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz continued to affect energy markets.
Trucking (US)
There are also tentative signs of improvement in the US freight market. Several major less-than-truckload carriers reported year-on-year shipment growth during August, while others recorded smaller declines than earlier in the year. Freight moving from constrained truckload networks into LTL services may be contributing to the improvement.
Strong Asian imports and resilient air cargo demand could provide additional volumes for US road and rail networks as pre-holiday distribution gathers pace. At the same time, some shippers are increasingly using smaller, faster shipments to replenish stock and protect availability without carrying excessive inventory.
Key points
- UK road transport prices increased 1.9% during August and were almost 7% higher year on year.
- Haulage availability fell more than 20% during the month, contributing to a 4% increase in haulage pricing.
- UK diesel costs rose more than 8% month on month and almost 28% year on year.
- US LTL volumes are showing early signs of improvement as freight shifts towards smaller, faster shipments.
International freight markets are becoming less uniform, with individual corridors increasingly responding to their own combination of demand, capacity, regulation and disruption.
That makes visibility and flexibility particularly important as businesses prepare for Golden Week and the Q4 peak. Global Forwarding combines the international reach of the Hecny Group with established carrier relationships, multimodal capability and local market expertise to identify changing conditions early and respond with the right routing, capacity and service options.
Whether you are reviewing ocean allocations, preparing for tighter airfreight capacity or managing changing inland requirements, our teams can help you build greater resilience into your international supply chain and keep cargo moving as market conditions change.
