Air cargo markets opened 2026 looking buoyant, but the early strength masks a more complex reality.
Demand patterns are shifting away from predictable e-commerce expansion toward fragmented, corridor-specific flows shaped by regulation, seasonality and industrial demand.
For shippers, the challenge is no longer simply securing uplift, it is choosing the right timing, routing and capacity strategy in a market where weekly changes matter more than annual trends.
Early-Year Volumes Inflated by Seasonal Timing
Global air cargo demand rose 7% year on year in January, exceeding the 5% increase in available capacity and lifting utilisation to a dynamic load factor of 57%.
However, the figures were distorted by the early Lunar New Year. Production and shipments were pulled forward into January before factory closures across China in February, which has temporarily exaggerated demand strength.
Beneath this seasonal uplift, a more structural shift is emerging: Chinese e-commerce exports are weakening. Low-value shipments fell 9% year on year in December, while China-to-US online retail volumes dropped more than 50% for a third consecutive month and declined 28% across full-year 2025.
Cross-border e-commerce has represented around a quarter of global air cargo demand since late 2023. Regulatory changes, including the removal of US de minimis exemptions and tighter rules across Europe and Asia, are now reducing that flow. Growth from China into Europe slowed to about 8% in December, compared with more than 50% earlier in 2025.
Weekly Volatility Replaces Stable Growth
Recent weeks show how unpredictable demand has become. Global tonnage rose 2% week on week through early February, the fifth consecutive increase, but regional patterns varied sharply.
North American volumes rebounded 8% as winter disruption eased, while Middle East and South Asia traffic climbed 7%, including a 12% increase into the United States.
Seasonal demand spikes also played a role. Valentine’s Day flower exports from Colombia and Ecuador surged 24% week on week before quickly retreating, illustrating how short-term events now drive market movement.
Asia-Pacific flows remained mixed:
- Shipments to the US increased from Japan (+11%), Hong Kong (+6%) and China (+2%)
- South Korea (-16%) and Vietnam (-10%) declined
- Into Europe, Taiwan rose 6% for a fifth consecutive week and Vietnam gained 10%
- China stayed broadly flat ahead of factory shutdowns
Rather than a consistent global upswing, the market now moves in short bursts linked to regional events.
Pricing Diverges Across Trade Lanes
Rate trends reflect the uneven demand profile. Most major corridors recorded year-on-year declines in January as expanding capacity outpaced demand, particularly from Southeast Asia.
- Northeast Asia → North America: down 3% due to active freighter capacity management
- Northeast Asia → Europe: down 6% year on year
In contrast, transatlantic westbound pricing rose 3% despite lower chargeable weight, influenced by tariff concerns and currency movements.
Entering February, short-term seasonal cargo pushed rates upward before easing again after Chinese New Year closures. Hong Kong outbound rates remained broadly stable year on year, Shanghai increased 11%, and selected European export lanes showed firmness, including a 22% week-on-week rise from London Heathrow.
How Global Forwarding Helps Manage Air Freight Volatility
Global Forwarding works with importers and exporters to match uplift windows, routing options and carrier strategies to each movement rather than relying on fixed assumptions about the market.
Through coordinated planning across Global’s Asia, EU, UK and U.S. network, the team monitors corridor-level demand patterns and identifies capacity alternatives before constraints affect schedules.
If your air freight programme needs greater predictability in a more volatile market, speak with Global Forwarding about reviewing your routing and capacity strategy for the coming quarter.
