Airfreight rates from Hong Kong maintained their strength in February, remaining above last year’s figures despite market uncertainty stemming from trade policies and seasonal trends.
Data from the Baltic Exchange Airfreight Index indicates that rates on key routes have sustained year-on-year increases. Prices for shipments from Hong Kong to North America were up by more than 15% compared with the same period in 2023, although they recorded a slight decline from January levels, in line with typical seasonal patterns.
A decrease in rates following the Asian Lunar New Year (LNY) is not uncommon, as factory closures across the region reduce cargo volumes. This year’s timing of the holiday meant that much of the pre-LNY rush took place in January, whereas in 2024, it extended further into February, influencing rate movements.
Market observers noted a dip in spot rates from Hong Kong to North America mid-month, followed by a recovery towards the end of February, indicating a rebound in demand. Despite concerns over new US trade measures, including a 10% tariff on Chinese goods and a temporary halt to the de minimis exemption for smaller shipments, pricing has remained resilient.
Analysts suggest that the full impact of these policy changes is yet to be fully realised, with any potential effects still being masked by the seasonal fluctuations of the LNY period.
According to a mid-month analysis by TAC Data, expectations of a sharp decline due to tariff concerns have not materialised, despite reports of some cancelled eCommerce flights.
Additional figures from WorldACD suggest that demand from Asia Pacific is recovering to pre-holiday levels. Data shows that chargeable weight from the region increased by 6% in the third week of February, approaching mid-January figures. Demand for shipments to both North America and Europe saw a 5% rise, with double-digit growth recorded for exports from Hong Kong and Japan to the US.
Meanwhile, airfreight rates from Hong Kong to Europe were around 4.5% higher than last year. However, the Red Sea crisis, which had previously increased demand for air cargo, appears to have stabilised, contributing to a more measured rate environment on this route.
On the transatlantic trade lane, airfreight prices from Europe to North America continue to outpace last year’s levels, with rates up by over 26% year on year own selected routes.
Seasonal factors also play a role here, as reduced passenger flights during the winter months limit available cargo capacity, supporting higher prices.
Overall, Hong Kong’s air cargo market has demonstrated resilience despite external pressures, with rates largely holding firm and demand rebounding post-LNY. However, industry stakeholders remain watchful of ongoing trade policy developments and their potential long-term impact on airfreight flows.
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