The global freight market continues to evolve in response to economic pressures, regulatory shifts, and geopolitical uncertainties. While overall demand remains steady, capacity imbalances and cost fluctuations are shaping rate movements across ocean, air, and road freight sectors.
Ocean freight faces rate volatility, with Red Sea diversions set to continue for some time, air cargo sees mixed trends with recovery in some trade lanes, and road freight maintains slow but steady growth.
OCEAN
The ocean freight market is in a transformative phase in 2025, influenced by regulatory changes, shifting trade patterns, and evolving carrier alliances. While global demand remains strong, excess capacity and cost pressures are driving rate fluctuations.
- Capacity & Congestion: Capacity growth is slowing to 5% in 2025 after record vessel deliveries in 2024. Port congestion exceeded 10% in February, tying up substantial capacity. However, the eventual easing of Red Sea diversions will potentially release 2 million TEU back into circulation.
- Rates & Alliances: The Shanghai Containerised Freight Index (SCFI) has dropped 17% since January. Carrier alliances are reshuffling, with the launch of new partnerships like Gemini Cooperation and Premier Alliance expected to exacerbate short-term demand for tonnage until new network setups settle.
- Market Outlook: North America and India outperform, while Europe’s sluggish economy affects exports and China’s exports exceed expectations, driven by tariff increases. 47 blank sailings (7% of scheduled trips) were announced for East-West trades through mid-April, with Transpacific routes hit hardest (43%).
AIR
The air freight market experienced volatility in February, with shifting trade patterns and uneven performance across regions. Despite a global tonnage increase of 5% year-on-year, key routes exhibited varying trends.
- Regional Trends: China-USA air freight volumes declined by 10% early in the month but showed signs of recovery. In contrast, China-Europe shipments remained stable, with chargeable weight up 4% year-on-year.
- Rates & Demand: Hong Kong spot rates rose 2.5% week-on-week and were up 12% year-on-year. London Heathrow rates dropped nearly 8% week-on-week, reflecting softer European outbound demand.
- Market Uncertainty: Despite early weakness, demand is rebounding, with four consecutive weeks of tonnage growth. Ongoing policy shifts and potential trade restrictions continue to impact rate movements and global trade dynamics.
ROAD
The US and European road freight markets face contrasting conditions in 2025, with growth tempered by economic and structural challenges.
United States
Market Trends: Truckload rates are projected to rise 3% in 2025 after a 2.5% decline last year.
Challenges: Weak freight demand, tariff-related supply chain disruptions, and economic uncertainty.
Rates & Capacity: Spot rates saw double-digit gains in late 2024, but market recovery remains uncertain. Carrier capacity is tightening as small operators exit.
Potential Growth Triggers: Inventory restocking and steady consumer spending could drive demand, though analysts are split on the recovery timeline.
Europe
Market Growth: Expected to grow 2% in 2025, reaching €436.9 billion, with a 1.8% CAGR through 2029.
Key Challenges: Worsening driver shortages (60% of positions unfilled by 2026), rising fuel and toll costs.
Rates: Q4 2024 contract freight rates rose 2.8 index points, while spot rates increased 0.5 points.
Efficiency Measures: Carriers using digitalisation and sustainability initiatives to help offset cost pressures and improve operational efficiency.
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