Amid continued global uncertainty, all modes of freight transport are facing fresh waves of disruption, volatility, and complexity.
Ocean freight remains particularly unsettled, as carriers continue to divert around the Red Sea, realign alliances, and shift capacity to meet a sudden surge in transpacific demand ahead of the US tariff deadline. These changes are driving rates upward, straining capacity, and creating ripple effects across Asia–Europe lanes and port infrastructure in Europe.
Meanwhile, air freight continues to be shaped by strong Asia–Europe eCommerce flows, with spot rates elevated due to persistent load pressure and pre-tariff front-loading, while overland networks are also experiencing mixed conditions.
With capacity tight and regulations evolving rapidly, shippers need agile, digitally enabled supply chain strategies. At Hecny Forwarding, our secured capacity, intelligent tracking tools, and deep carrier partnerships give customers reliability and resilience — even in fast-changing conditions.
Ocean Freight
Ocean freight markets remain volatile as carriers navigate Red Sea disruptions, shifting alliances, and tariff-related shocks. Vessels continue to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope, consuming capacity and extending transit times. Congestion is mounting at key European ports including Antwerp, Hamburg, and Valencia, while the EU ETS is inflating costs through carbon surcharges. Labour actions in Northern Europe and the US East Coast are adding to delays.
The recent US-China tariff pause has triggered a rush to ship cargo ahead of the 14 August deadline. Carriers are reinstating transpacific sailings, particularly to the US East Coast, after previously slashing capacity. Peak season volumes must sail by mid-July, creating urgency and congestion. To meet demand, vessels are being diverted from other routes — Asia–Europe capacity dropped 17% week-on-week in mid-June, with Southeast Asia expected to benefit from redeployed services.
European demand remains stable for pharma and reefer cargo, but discretionary volumes are still subdued. Alliance transitions are ongoing, with Gemini showing strong reliability, though full rollout is expected in July.
Freight rates are surging in response. Shanghai–Los Angeles spot rates rose 17% week-on-week, up 38% in three weeks. Shanghai–New York jumped 14%, with carriers offering premium services at elevated prices. Europe-bound rates also rose: Rotterdam up 6%, Genoa 3%. Carriers are enforcing June GRIs, but analysts expect renewed downward pressure later this year. Shippers should lock in space early and monitor capacity shifts closely to mitigate risk through the volatile summer period.
Air Freight
Air freight markets are defined by regional contrasts. Asia–Europe volumes are rising steadily, supported by eCommerce and seasonal fashion flows, while transpacific lanes remain volatile due to tariff-related disruption. Capacity remains tight, but carriers are preparing summer schedule expansions to meet demand.
In April, global air cargo demand rose 5.8% year-on-year, while capacity increased 6.3%. Jet fuel prices dropped 21% YoY, easing carrier margins. China–US demand, which fell 14% in April, rebounded strongly by late May. China–Europe volumes rose 11% over six weeks, with load factors exceeding 90% on many Asia outbound routes.
Carriers are responding cautiously to tariff uncertainty and policy shifts. IATA notes that recent growth has been driven by front-loading and seasonal factors, with underlying volatility expected to persist. While capacity is set to improve in Q3, it continues to lag demand in key corridors. eCommerce will remain a key driver of volumes through Q2.
Spot rates remain high. Baltic Exchange data shows global air freight rates up 2% YoY in March, with Asia–Europe spot rates rising 13% and Asia–US by 11%. Mid-high transpacific rates spiked in May as shippers paid premiums to secure uplift. Load factors above 80–90% give carriers strong pricing leverage, despite lower fuel costs.
Forthcoming changes to US De Minimis rules may disrupt low-value flows, redirecting volumes or shifting services. With capacity constraints expected to ease only gradually, shippers reliant on spot markets face elevated rates. Long-term contracts and proactive planning remain essential through the volatile summer period.
Overland
US
Turnover for the Top 25 LTL carriers rose nearly 4% in 2024 to $45.8 billion, recovering from a 14% drop in 2023. Shippers faced rising costs, with LTL rates up 3%, and the Producer Price Index increasing 12% since Yellow’s collapse. Despite a soft market, average daily shipments rose 2.7% among top carriers to 586,545.
Thirteen of the top carriers outpaced the average, with the highest growing revenue by nearly 16%. Large players led growth after acquiring Yellow’s terminals—boosting the Top 25’s combined network to 2,898 sites, a 2.9% YoY increase.
While overall LTL revenue remains below the 2022 peak, it is still 25% above 2020 levels. The sector saw 41% growth from 2020–2022, and a further 26% by 2024. Terminal utilisation remained efficient, with 202 average daily shipments per terminal across the Top 25, close to the sector-wide average.
Europe
The UK and European road freight market began 2025 under pressure. Q1 saw contract and spot rates fall, down 2.3 and 3.8 points respectively, as weak consumer sentiment and cautious inventory strategies dragged down volumes. Courier demand remained flat, but haulage activity surged in April, boosted by a late Easter, strong weather, and seasonal retail uplift.
Articulated vehicle demand rose 45% year-on-year, but artic slack fell 10.9%, tightening available capacity. The TEG Road Transport Index rose 3.9 points to 123.8 in April, while haulage prices climbed 5.7 points. Courier rates edged up just 1.7%. Although diesel prices fell 2.17% month-on-month, rising labour costs continue to inflate the cost base.
Manufacturers and retailers face continued uncertainty from tariff disruptions and global trade realignments. Many shippers are blending long-term contracts with spot usage to balance stability and flexibility, a trend also observed in the recovering US LTL market, where major players are consolidating volume through network optimisation and contract focus.
With vehicle registrations down and capacity growth limited, European road freight could see renewed rate pressure if volumes increase.
Our dedicated European commercial vehicle fleet and secured price and capacity agreements with trusted air and ocean carriers ensure your cargo moves efficiently and cost-effectively, even in the toughest conditions.
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