A sharp shift in carrier behaviour is reshaping the Asia–Europe ocean market through the final quarter of the year. Repeated rate increases, widespread blank sailings and aggressive capacity withdrawals have tightened space significantly, setting a firmer backdrop as the holiday season approaches.
From early October onwards, freight-all-kinds (FAK) levels have risen at roughly two-week intervals, driving spot prices higher across both North Europe and Mediterranean destinations.
Rate momentum is being fuelled by substantial cuts to scheduled capacity. On some mainline services, operators removed nearly a quarter of slots through October, with November and December trending in the same direction as additional blank sailings are confirmed.
Capacity discipline vs. long-term oversupply
Although carriers are tightening services today, the global fleet picture tells a different story. Several years of heavy new-build deliveries, combined with minimal scrapping, mean the order book now equates to almost one-third of the active fleet. Further rounds of new tonnage are due from 2027 onwards, creating a structural oversupply that will require continued capacity management if carriers hope to maintain pricing power.
In the short term, however, capacity withdrawals are having a clear impact. Since October Asia–North Europe spot rates have climbed by more than two-thirds, while Mediterranean prices are approaching twice their early-Q4 levels.
Major indices have recorded week-on-week increases into both regions, although late-November volatility suggests shippers are pausing to assess further blank-sailing announcements before committing to higher spot levels.
Late Lunar New Year pulls demand forward
Forward bookings remain firm, with a mid-February Lunar New Year prompting many importers to advance inventory planning. Several eastbound loops are reporting limited late-cargo acceptance and minimal flexibility on priority bookings as vessels fill earlier in the cycle.
Underlying demand remains solid. Asia–Europe volumes for the year-to-date grew close to double-digit levels, reflecting strong European restocking and more stable retail flows. With container availability tightening and carriers using blank sailings to regulate supply, a firm market is expected to continue into early 2026.
Space constraints, longer dwell times and increased rollover risk are likely through January, particularly as pre-holiday cargo bunches around key load ports.
Asia–Europe strength contrasts with transpacific softness
The divide between major East–West trades is widening. While Asia–Europe rates are supported by full vessels and disciplined capacity cuts, transpacific pricing remains under pressure. Repeated GRIs into the US have struggled to hold as additional capacity arrives, leaving carriers actively chasing volume on both coasts.
This shift reflects:
- Europe drawing more Asian exports as North American demand cools.
- US import weakness driven by policy uncertainty and persistent overcapacity.
How Global Forwarding supports you
Global Forwarding’s Asia–Europe expertise is built on deep regional presence, long-standing carrier partnerships and proactive capacity planning. In a market defined by limited space, elevated pricing and tight schedules, we help importers stay in control by:
- Securing reliable space during peak periods
- Providing lane-by-lane market intelligence and forward visibility
- Optimising routings and transit-time performance
- Managing risk around blank sailings, equipment constraints and schedule disruption
If you need support planning ahead of Lunar New Year or want to protect your supply chain performance into 2026, our team is ready to help.
Speak with Global Forwarding to secure space, stabilise costs and keep your Asia–Europe freight moving.
