In the US, freight markets are entering a transitional phase rather than a recessionary one. Air cargo demand from Asia has firmed, but ocean rates remain under pressure due to oversupply, and trucking networks face a mix of weak spot pricing, cost inflation and growing cross-border demand into Mexico.
Across Europe, supply-chain reliability continues to improve even as demand remains uneven. Ocean and air capacity are broadly sufficient, helped by earlier restocking and a more predictable operational environment following a year of labour disruptions, weather-related bottlenecks and prolonged volatility on east–west trades.
Ocean
Asia–Europe and Transpacific markets continue to diverge sharply entering the New Year. Aggressive blank sailings helped steady Asia–Europe pricing in early December, while US-bound demand weakened further following early retail front-loading. Over the five-week period from mid-December to mid-January, carriers have pulled 64 of 709 scheduled sailings—around 9% of departures—with most cancellations concentrated on the Transpacific eastbound (50%), followed by the Transatlantic westbound (31%) and Asia–Europe/Mediterranean (19%). Despite this, 91% of sailings remain scheduled as planned, reflecting carriers’ reluctance to fully withdraw capacity.
Rate signals underline the split market. Drewry’s World Container Index rose 2% week-on-week, driven largely by a 10% increase on Asia–Europe/Med routes, while Transpacific spot rates fell 6% amid subdued demand. December alone will see 67 blank sailings, which conversely add roughly 4% extra capacity month-on-month as removed voyages redistribute tonnage. Early-January schedules indicate a further 3% increase in effective capacity, sustaining downward pressure on US-bound pricing.
Global schedule reliability deteriorated to 34% in November—its first decline after months of stability—though Asia–Europe lanes improved to 31%. With early Chinese New Year cargo already entering the market, short-term rate firmness is likely on Asia–Europe, while Transpacific levels remain vulnerable to oversupply.
Air
Airfreight markets strengthened meaningfully through November and early December, with Asia Pacific spot rates rising across all major lanes to the US and Europe. China–US pricing reached its highest level of the year at the start of December, climbing a further 8%, with wider Asia Pacific–US lanes up on average 6% week-on-week. A significant spike from Japan contributed to this uplift, even as overall transpacific volumes remained flat month-on-month and only modestly higher year-on-year.
Into Europe, Asia Pacific spot rates rose 5% week-on-week, with particularly strong increases from Japan, Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore. November tonnages grew 5% year-on-year globally, while Asia Pacific–Europe volumes rose 1%, supported by higher uplift from Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and Malaysia. Thailand-origin volumes remained weak, but total Asia Pacific–Europe tonnage is now running 7% above last year.
Capacity remains well balanced as long-haul passenger networks provide stable belly-hold supply. China and Hong Kong exports into the US continue to lag last year due to tariff effects and the decline of de minimis benefits, diverting more uplift into Europe. Rate momentum is expected to continue modestly into January, supported by early CNY demand, technology flows and diversified Asian sourcing.
Trucking
European road freight markets are stabilising as manufacturing restocking lifts volumes and supply-chain reliability improves. Capacity remains structurally tight, with reduced truck registrations, persistent driver shortages and higher employment costs continuing to squeeze operators. Spot and contract rates are gradually converging, supported by firmer cross-border flows, improving industrial confidence and late-Q4 diesel volatility that reintroduced cost pressure.
US trucking and intermodal markets are transitioning rather than contracting. Spot pricing remains weak, and cost inflation continues to challenge operator margins, but cross-border trade into Mexico is expanding as near-shoring investment accelerates across the Bajío and Querétaro corridors. Mexico has consolidated its position as the United States’ largest trading partner, underpinning medium-term optimism for 2026. Capacity exits in the US truckload sector are expected to support rate normalisation by mid-2026, even as fuel costs and customs delays remain operational risks.
Together, these trends point to gradually improving fundamentals on both sides of the Atlantic. With demand firming, capacity constrained, and regulatory and compliance costs rising, rates are expected to hold steady with mild upward pressure into early 2026.
Our strong carrier relationships and global purchasing power keep costs competitive, even in shifting markets. Paired with real-time, data-verified tracking and proactive purchase order management, we deliver the visibility and control you need to plan ahead and adapt fast.
Global Forwarding can help you optimise performance and reduce risk across your air, ocean and surface freight networks.
