With China–US trade constrained by new trade regulations, Asia Pacific is emerging as a dynamic air cargo market, showing faster volume recovery on transpacific and Asia–Europe routes.
Air cargo demand in Asia Pacific grew approximately 11% year-on-year in mid-2025, leading global growth in air freight. While China’s export activity slowed amid ongoing trade tensions and tariff changes, overall regional cargo capacity increased roughly 4%, helping to support evolving trade lanes.
Cross-border eCommerce is a key driver, accounting for nearly 7% of Asia’s cargo tonne-kilometres and about 3% of global air cargo traffic. Mainland China, Hong Kong, and Japan collectively manage around 60% of Asia’s air cargo volume, but hubs like Singapore, Bangkok, and emerging Southeast Asian markets are rapidly gaining share as supply chain diversification accelerates.
The removal of China’s de minimis exemption in May 2025, which exempted low-value parcel shipments from duties, caused an immediate 17% drop in China-Hong Kong-US eCommerce air cargo volumes. Capacity on this critical trade lane fell nearly 30%, reflecting the crucial role of these shipments for major platforms.
These policy changes forced supply chain shifts, including front-loading ahead of tariff deadlines and seeking alternative origins. Consequently, exports from Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia to the US surged, with growth rates between 100% and 190% from 2017 to 2024, underscoring their increasing importance in the global supply chain.
Opportunities and Challenges for Importers and Exporters
Importers will find value in diversifying their supplier bases across Asia Pacific to improve resilience and mitigate tariff exposure. However, importers should also prepare for fluctuations in shipping costs and longer lead times from China due to intensified customs scrutiny. Real-time shipment visibility tools are now essential to ensure reliable, timely deliveries.
Rising demand for high-value goods including electronics, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals presents lucrative exporting opportunities. Yet emerging markets may pose challenges such as infrastructure bottlenecks and fragmented last-mile logistics, requiring careful preparation.
Global Forwarding is part of Asia’s leading freight forwarding group, Hecny operates a network of offices throughout the region, leveraging advanced digital platforms for dynamic route optimisation and seamless end-to-end supply chain management. Our proprietary Clarity platform delivers advanced shipment tracking with 100% qualified data, providing customers with accurate, real-time insights to proactively manage cargo flows.
Global Forwarding’s deep local expertise enables our clients to swiftly adjust exporting and sourcing strategies to minimise risk. Headquartered in Hong Kong, Hecny Group is ideally positioned to support our customers’ access to the fastest-growing markets across India and Southeast Asia.
By combining comprehensive regional knowledge, cutting-edge digital innovation, and extensive global connectivity, Global Forwarding empowers shippers to stay agile, optimise costs, and capitalise on the expanding air freight landscape across Asia Pacific.
