As the security situation across the Middle East continues to evolve, freight routes, costs and capacity flows are shifting rapidly.
The region is currently classified as high-risk for both ocean and air freight movements.
Key developments include:
- Over 2% of the global container fleet positioned in or near the Persian Gulf
- Major carriers suspending Gulf bookings or avoiding the region entirely
- War-risk and conflict surcharges being introduced
- Regional airspace closures reducing global air cargo capacity by approximately 18%
- Increasing likelihood of delays, congestion and cost escalation
Ocean Freight Situation
With threats to vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, access to Gulf ports remains highly uncertain. Unlike the earlier Red Sea disruption — where rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope was possible, albeit with extended transit times — a full closure of the Persian Gulf removes the destination itself for Gulf-bound cargo.
This includes critical transhipment hubs handling significant volumes between Asia, the Indian subcontinent and Europe.
There is no modern shipping precedent for simultaneous disruption in both the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea/Suez corridor. The displacement of volume is expected to create extended ripple effects across global networks.
Carrier Actions
Major carriers limiting or suspending Gulf exposure include:
CMA CGM • COSCO • HMM • MSC • ONE • OOCL • PIL • Wan Hai
Operational responses include:
- Suspension of high-risk sailings
- Diversion around the Cape of Good Hope
- Vessels instructed to seek safe anchorage
- Potential discharge of Gulf-bound cargo at alternative regional hubs
Some niche operators continue to accept limited bookings, typically subject to substantial surcharges.
Surcharges & Insurance
Additional costs are now being applied on certain Gulf and Red Sea routes, including:
- War-risk surcharge: approx. $1,500 per TEU / $3,500 per reefer
- Conflict surcharge: up to $2,000 per TEU / $3,000 per FEU / $4,000 per reefer
- Red Sea booking surcharges: $1,500–$3,200 per container
Marine insurance premiums are rising sharply and further adjustments remain possible.
Network & Congestion Impact
Gulf-destined cargo may be discharged at alternative hubs such as:
Salalah • Khor Fakkan • Sohar • Duqm • Colombo
This is likely to lead to:
- Regional port congestion
- Transhipment delays
- Bottlenecks at Singapore, Port Klang and Tanjung Pelepas
- Upward pressure on spot rates as effective capacity tightens
Transit times across affected trade lanes will increase while routing stabilises.
Air Freight Situation
Airspace closures across parts of the Gulf have materially reduced global air cargo capacity.
Current restrictions impact:
UAE • Qatar • Kuwait • Bahrain • Iraq • Iran • Israel • Jordan
Partial restrictions: Oman
Operating normally: Egypt
Major airlines including Emirates, Qatar Airways, British Airways, Lufthansa, KLM, Virgin Atlantic and others have suspended or rerouted services.
Capacity Impact
- Global air cargo capacity down approx. 18%
- Asia–Middle East–Europe capacity down approx. 26%
- Direct Asia–Europe lift up 13–14% as aircraft bypass Gulf hubs
- Approximately half of China/HK–Europe freight normally relies on Gulf stopovers
- India–Europe and India–North America routings extended
Alternative technical stops, including Muscat, are congested. Even with rapid reopening, a backlog of 7–10 days is possible.
Sustained cancellations may result in upward rate movement, particularly on Asia–Europe lanes.
Wider Market Impact
Energy markets have reacted sharply, increasing operating costs for both airlines and shipping lines, which may feed through into freight pricing.
Global Forwarding Response
Our teams are:
- Maintaining continuous liaison with carriers, airlines and insurers
- Reviewing alternative routing and contingency strategies
- Monitoring security and network developments in real time
- Communicating directly with affected customers
If you have cargo moving through — or planned via — the Middle East, please contact your usual Global Forwarding representative to review mitigation options.
Further updates will follow as the situation develops.
