The global air freight market entered March on a relatively solid footing. January cargo demand was up 5.6% year on year while capacity increased by 3.6%. February demand growth was 6% year on year, pointing to a market that was already firm before the latest disruption in the Middle East.
Asia–Europe has seen the clearest tightening. Around 30% of Asia–Europe air cargo normally routes via the Middle East, so restricted Gulf hub operations have had an immediate effect on available lift. Dynamic load factors on the lane rose from 80% to 86% in a week, signalling a market that moved from firm to very tight in a few days.
Rate movements have been steep, though not uniform across origins. Southern Asia–Europe prices were up by roughly 70% in nine days, while South Asia–Europe rates were reportedly up by more than 80% since before the conflict began. China–Europe rate increases have been more moderate, with one benchmark showing week-on-week growth of about 13%, but the wider Asia–Europe market is clearly under pressure. Data also indicates particularly strong week-on-week gains from Vietnam, Seoul and Taiwan into Europe.
The lane is also absorbing higher operating costs. Jet fuel prices have roughly doubled since the conflict escalated, and airlines have begun passing this through in revised fuel surcharges. One Asia flag carrier’s cargo fuel surcharge, for example, is rising by more than 300% from 20 March, while a leading European carrier has lifted its surcharge by more than 40%.
Transpacific: firmer, especially from South Asia and India
The transpacific is being affected less directly, but it is no longer insulated. As cargo that would normally move via Gulf hubs is redirected through Asian gateways such as Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea and Japan, capacity on eastbound transpacific corridors is tightening. And disruption is now spreading across multiple trade lanes rather than remaining confined to the Middle East–Europe corridor.
The strongest increases are being seen out of South Asia and India. South Asia–North America rates up by around 50% since the start of the conflict, while Reuters put the increase closer to 58%. Separate market reporting indicates India–US rates have risen by around 60%, with week-on-week gains of roughly 30% also recorded out of India to both Europe and the US.
That said, the transpacific picture is still mixed by origin. Earlier March data showed the overall global Baltic Air Freight Index was only marginally higher week on week, suggesting that sharp increases on selected lanes are not yet translating into a uniform market-wide spike. North America was also one of the few regions to record a weekly rise in chargeable weight of 3% week on week.
Transatlantic: comparatively steadier, but still relevant
The transatlantic has been less directly exposed than Asia–Europe, but it remains an important balancing corridor as airlines and forwarders rework global networks. Current Freightos Air Index readings show Europe-to-North America spot rates are roughly double the backhaul, underlining the ongoing strength of the eastbound transatlantic market relative to westbound flows.
Recent Baltic Exchange commentary also points to a mixed but not overheated transatlantic environment. February performance diverged by gateway, with Heathrow showing firmer conditions while Frankfurt softened, suggesting lane strength is being shaped more by local capacity and demand dynamics than by a single, market-wide squeeze.
What this means for shippers
The main takeaway is not that every lane is surging at the same pace, but that east–west air freight has become more fragmented and more expensive to manage. Asia–Europe is the most disrupted corridor, South Asia and India are driving much of the transpacific pressure, and the transatlantic remains comparatively stable. Fuel is now a major part of the story: with jet fuel costs sharply higher and surcharge mechanisms being updated more frequently, total air freight spend can move faster than base rates alone suggest.
Global Forwarding helps shippers respond to these changing conditions with agile routing, strong carrier access and practical market guidance across Asia, Europe and North America.
Contact our team to review your air freight options, compare routing strategies and keep time-sensitive cargo moving with greater control.
