Despite geopolitical tension, rising costs and ongoing tariff uncertainty, global trade is expected to keep growing in 2026. That is the central conclusion of the Global Trade Observatory Annual Outlook Report 2026, based on feedback from more than 3,500 senior supply-chain executives worldwide.
For shippers, the message is clear: trade is resilient, but supply chains are not. Competitive advantage in 2026 will come from how well businesses adapt routes, partners, inventory strategies and technology to operate under constant disruption.
Confidence in Volumes, Even as Risks Persist
An overwhelming 94% of executives expect trade growth in 2026 to match or exceed 2025, a year that already delivered record global trade volumes. This confidence holds even though most respondents also expect:
- High policy and tariff uncertainty
- Rising or stable trade barriers
- Continued cost inflation across transport, labour and compliance
Shippers are no longer waiting for stability to return. Instead, they are planning on the assumption that volatility is permanent and are reshaping supply chains accordingly.
Resilience Becomes a Growth Strategy
Resilience is no longer defensive. It is now a commercial strategy. The most common shipper responses include:
- Supplier diversification to reduce exposure to single markets or regions
- Higher inventory levels, increasing demand for warehousing capacity
- Friend-shoring and near-shoring, particularly into Asia, Africa and aligned markets
Many shippers are also reassessing trade lanes. Almost half expect to use new routes in 2026, driven by cost savings, faster clearance and better inland connectivity rather than purely geopolitical concerns.
Costs Are Rising — but Are Being Absorbed Strategically
Nearly 50% of executives expect moderate to sharp cost increases across shipping, warehousing, labour and customs. However, higher costs are often linked to deliberate strategic choices, such as:
- Holding more inventory to protect service levels
- Entering new markets with higher compliance requirements
- Using alternative routes that trade speed or resilience for cost
Rather than suppressing trade, cost pressure is accelerating smarter network design and operational decision-making.
Technology Is Widespread, but Not Yet Transformational
Most shippers already use digital tools, automation and AI in parts of their operations. However, the report finds that:
- Digitalisation improves visibility, reliability and speed more than it cuts costs
- AI adoption is broad but still tactical, not enterprise-wide
- Cybersecurity, system integration and interoperability remain major barriers
Over the next five to eight years, executives expect AI to become the most impactful trade technology — particularly for forecasting, disruption modelling and end-to-end visibility.
Customs, Warehousing and Borders Remain the Weakest Links
For shippers, the biggest operational constraints are not demand-related — they are structural:
- Customs clearance is the leading cause of delay and disruption
- Warehousing and logistics hubs are the top infrastructure investment priority
- Access to trade finance remains difficult or costly for many businesses, especially SMEs
Executives consistently call for faster border processes, better digital customs systems and more predictable clearance timelines to unlock further trade growth.
What This Means for Shippers in 2026
The report’s findings point to a clear operating reality for importers and exporters:
- Growth is available, but only for supply chains designed for friction
- Flexibility in routing, sourcing and inventory is becoming essential
- Visibility, data and execution quality matter more than lowest-cost transport
- Logistics partners, customs performance and infrastructure access will increasingly differentiate service and reliability
In short, 2026 will reward shippers who plan for disruption — not those who hope to avoid it.
From customs and trade compliance to flexible routing, warehousing and end-to-end visibility, Global Forwarding helps shippers execute supply chain resilience and reliability in an unpredictable trade environment.
Contacts us now to discuss how we can support your 2026 supply chain strategy.
