The early rush to front-load shipments ahead of impending tariffs has drained much of the typical second-half year demand. At the same time, invisible inventory – goods stalled in yards, terminals, or warehouses and absent from tracking – is quietly distorting freight markets.
Ocean freight markets experienced an early surge in volumes as importers moved quickly to secure goods before tariffs took effect. This drove short-term rate increases, but with the peak brought forward, carriers now expect a steady easing into the end of the year. Vessel supply still outpaces demand, and idle capacity is set to grow.
To counter falling utilisation, carriers are implementing blank sailings and scaling back tonnage to maintain rate levels.Transpacific volumes are unlikely to see a strong pre-holiday uplift, and while transatlantic westbound trades remain stable, they offer limited relief.
Airfreight markets show a similar pattern. Rates have risen on certain lanes, such as transpacific eastbound, but the broader peak season is expected to be subdued or delayed until mid-Q4, when reduced winter schedules may tighten available capacity.
The Hidden Disruption of Invisible Inventory
Invisible inventory is complicating an already volatile environment. Goods sitting outside core distribution networks can suddenly re-enter the market, triggering short-lived surges or bottlenecks. This mismatch between perceived and actual demand is particularly visible in Southeast Asia, where outbound airfreight tonnage has dropped sharply despite overall strong trade flows earlier in the year.
With many companies basing decisions on shifting trade policy and transport capacity, rather than end-consumer demand, traditional annual forecasting has become obsolete. Businesses are now re-forecasting multiple times a year, responding to short-term signals rather than predictable seasonal cycles.
While some carriers may hope for a modest recovery in late 2025, the absence of reliable peak season patterns makes any forecast highly speculative. Increased capacity on certain regional lanes, such as Asia–Middle East and intra-North America, offers little reassurance, while rates on key corridors like China–Europe remain flat.
In today’s disrupted environment, the most resilient supply chains will be those that maintain visibility and can adapt quickly, flexing routing, mode choice, and distribution strategies as conditions shift.
Global Forwarding combines advanced tracking and visibility tools with global, multi-modal freight solutions to help you overcome uncertainty, optimise inventory flows, and maintain competitive advantage.
