Refrigerated container availability remains under pressure, even as new-build production surges to the highest levels in more than a decade. Shippers relying on temperature-controlled supply chains face continued challenges from ageing fleets, extreme weather, and shifting trade flows.
Global reefer production hit 93,000 TEUs in Q1 2025, up 145% on the same period last year. Annual output is projected to approach 350,000 TEUs, which is well above the long-term average of 275,000–300,000 TEUs. Almost all new units are produced by Chinese manufacturers, but lead times for ordering 40ft reefers have doubled to around four months. In the US, new equipment costs are climbing further due to steel tariffs.
Despite this surge, supply remains constrained. Much of the global fleet, estimated at over 3.7 million TEUs, is now between 11 and 14 years old. Significant retirements are expected in the near term, tightening availability just as demand remains resilient.
Extreme weather is adding further stress to equipment. In July alone, the US East Coast saw more than 25 heat records set or tied. Reefers must be pre-cooled before loading, increasing turnaround times, while higher operating temperatures push units closer to failure. Maintenance incidents have risen sharply, with many operators reporting longer downtime per unit.
Trade demand fluctuates
US trade data highlights uneven demand. In May 2025, reefer exports totalled 56,254 TEUs, down nearly 20% year on year. Imports reached 156,733 TEUs, 5.4% lower than a year earlier and the weakest monthly total since August 2023. Globally, however, reefer trade volumes are forecast to grow 2% annually through 2029, with specific corridors expanding faster.
Oceania–Asia, Central America–North America, and North Europe–Asia saw the sharpest growth in 2024. This shifting pattern makes it harder for carriers to position equipment efficiently, resulting in persistent imbalances across regions.
Strategic implications for shippers
- Plan earlier: With lead times extending and availability uneven, forward planning for bookings is critical.
- Diversify routings: Shifting trade flows, particularly away from China, mean alternative sourcing and shipping routes may offer more reliable equipment access.
- Monitor costs: Higher equipment prices and steel tariffs are feeding through to freight rates. Budgeting for volatility is essential.
- Expect uncertainty: Ageing fleets, extreme weather, and fluctuating demand suggest the reefer market will remain unpredictable well into 2026.
Although production is at record levels and global reefer trade is still growing, equipment shortages and repositioning challenges will persist. For shippers, the key is early engagement with logistics partners, flexible sourcing strategies, and proactive monitoring of trade lane developments. Those who act early can secure capacity and maintain supply chain resilience in what promises to be another volatile year for the cold chain.
At Global Forwarding, we understand that moving temperature-sensitive goods takes more than equipment, it takes our expertise.
Our dedicated foodstuffs team specialises in securing reliable reefer capacity and navigating global complexities, to protect your perishables and keep your cold chain moving.
