The build-up to the Black Friday and Christmas shopping seasons has added sustained pressure to already busy lanes, tightening available space and pushing rates higher across key corridors.
The combination of high-tech exports, strong e-commerce flows and ongoing sourcing shifts toward Vietnam, Thailand and neighbouring manufacturing hubs is redefining traditional peak-season dynamics. Rather than a short, intense surge, volumes have climbed steadily through the fourth quarter, leaving carriers and forwarders working to secure capacity well ahead of schedule.
This year’s pattern highlights a broader structural change: importers are diversifying sourcing away from China, even as China’s own e-commerce demand remains strong despite regulatory changes affecting low-value shipments.
Vietnam and Thailand Demand Increasing
Heavy demand for electronics, semiconductors and other high-tech cargo is combining with significant e-commerce flows, resulting in consistently full flights and frequent rate escalations from Vietnam, with Thailand showing similar momentum.
Across Southeast Asia, demand for solar cell equipment, online retail cargo and high-value technology shipments has encouraged carriers to add extra freighter rotations, yet demand continues to outstrip supply.
On long-haul routes to North America and Europe, rates have risen accordingly. Spot prices on Southeast Asia–US lanes have climbed by double-digit percentages in recent weeks, while Southeast Asia–Europe lanes are showing similar upward pressure.
China’s Momentum Remains Strong
China’s outbound airfreight market remains highly active and e-commerce flows continue to dominate the China–US corridor, with direct flights to major US gateways operating near capacity and rates increasing week on week.
Prices from China to the US West Coast and major East Coast hubs have risen by around 5% in the past seven days, reaching their highest levels of the year. Rates on China–Europe corridors have also increased by low-single-digit percentages since early October and now sit well above pre-Golden Week levels.
Even with the removal of US de minimis treatment for low-value parcels earlier this year, Chinese platforms and high-tech exporters continue to secure large blocks of space, often through charter arrangements, ensuring that general market capacity remains tight.
Current market conditions are typical for the run-up to Black Friday, yet this year’s build-up has started earlier and is being sustained for longer. Whether the latest volumes include Christmas stock replenishment is still unclear, but indicators suggest that post-Black-Friday bookings will determine whether this becomes a prolonged peak.
For now, the pattern is clear: Asia’s manufacturing hubs—from Vietnam and Thailand to southern China—are driving a broad-based uplift in air cargo demand, tightening space on both trans-Pacific and Asia–Europe routes and pushing rates upward across all major markets. With capacity already constrained, the coming weeks will show whether the industry faces a traditional seasonal peak or a more extended period of pressure stretching into December.
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