Sea freight spot rates on the transpacific trade remain under pressure, but carriers have successfully arrested steep falls by combining general rate increases (GRIs) and blank sailings to shore up pricing.
Import volumes into the US from Asia ahead of Golden Week were subdued compared with prior peaks, and forward demand indicators suggest declines of up to one-fifth in Q4 import flows. Spot rate indices for Asia-to-US trades had been drifting downward through August, but the September 1 GRI produced a modest uptick, lifting rates by several percentage points. Without deeper capacity adjustments, rates risked slipping back toward contract benchmarks.
However, rather than slipping back, transpacific spot rates appear to be holding firm relative to August lows. Drewry and other indices recorded week-on-week gains of roughly 8%–12% on Asia-US West Coast and East Coast lanes, in contrast to Asia–Europe trades, which continue to show weakness.
Capacity pullbacks to bolster rates
In September, eastbound transpacific blankings removed approximately 10% of capacity on West Coast routes and nearly 13% on East Coast strings. Forecasts for October foresee blankings of about 10% on the West Coast and almost 20% to the East Coast, reflecting a more aggressive stance.
Carriers have adjusted or suspended certain loops during October’s Golden Week, further tightening capacity. By proactively pulling capacity, lines are working to prevent spot rates from dropping below contract levels, avoiding the steep declines seen earlier in the summer. This strategy has created a floor beneath which pricing is not expected to fall, even if demand weakens.
Looking ahead, the transpacific market remains fragile. No meaningful backlog of cargo in Asia is expected, which means that sustaining rates will depend on continued capacity discipline and timely vessel withdrawals. If carriers do not maintain blanking momentum, spot prices could drift downward again post-Golden Week. But for now, the combination of GRIs and blank sailings has provided a stabilising buffer.
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