Sea freight spot rates on the transpacific trade remain under pressure, as carriers attempt to arrest steep falls by combining general rate increases (GRIs) and blank sailings appears to be faltering.
Sea freight spot rates on the transpacific are falling again. Carriers attempted a general rate increase (GRI) at the start of the month, but the uplift didn’t hold, and spot levels are now lower than they were a couple of weeks ago. The market remains highly reactive and may shift again if the impact of recent and any additional blanked sailings tightens effective capacity.
Pre–Golden Week import demand into the US from Asia was muted compared with prior peaks, with forward indicators still pointing to softer volumes into Q4. Without sustained capacity discipline, spot prices have continued to drift, with several indices showing week-on-week erosion on Asia–US West and East Coast lanes after the short-lived GRI bounce.
Capacity pullbacks to bolster rates
In September, eastbound transpacific blankings removed approximately 10% of capacity on West Coast routes and nearly 13% on East Coast strings. Forecasts for October foresee blankings of about 10% on the West Coast and almost 20% to the East Coast, reflecting a more aggressive stance.
Carriers have adjusted or suspended certain loops during October’s Golden Week, further tightening capacity. By proactively pulling capacity, lines are working to prevent spot rates from dropping below contract levels, avoiding the steep declines seen earlier in the summer. This strategy has created a floor beneath which pricing is not expected to fall, even if demand weakens.
Looking ahead, the transpacific market remains fragile. No meaningful backlog of cargo in Asia is expected, which means that sustaining rates will depend on continued capacity discipline and timely vessel withdrawals. If carriers do not maintain blanking momentum, spot prices could drift downward again post-Golden Week. But for now, the combination of GRIs and blank sailings has provided a stabilising buffer.
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