After nearly three years of steady contraction, the US truckload market may be turning a corner. For the first time in 11 quarters, capacity among the largest truckload operators has nudged upward, suggesting that the freight recession that began in 2022 could be nearing its end.
Despite subdued demand and weak spot markets, a select group of leading carriers has begun to modestly increase fleet sizes in anticipation of a potential volume rebound in late 2025 or early 2026. This measured expansion reflects a growing willingness to prepare for renewed demand.
The uptick in capacity — reflected in the Journal of Commerce’s Truckload Capacity Index (TCI), which rose by just over 1% in the second quarter — does not stem from a sudden increase in freight volumes. Rather, it points to strategic positioning by major players seeking to ensure readiness for future demand spikes.
With contract rates rising by only low single-digit percentages and small and mid-sized operators continuing to exit the market, large carriers retain flexibility while still offering competitive pricing. Shippers, for their part, are starting to reward reliability with modest rate increases to secure access to dependable capacity, even in a soft market.
Positioning for Peak and Policy Shifts
The recalibration of fleet size is also influenced by broader trade dynamics. With US tariff adjustments prompting shifts in distribution patterns, shippers are reassessing their long-term logistics strategies. Some are already engaging carriers for peak season projects, prompting incremental growth in asset fleets.
One leading carrier reported a year-on-year reduction in tractor count of more than 6% in the second quarter, while others showed sequential growth of between 1–10% as they respond to customer requests and lane-specific opportunities. Although total capacity remains well below 2022 peaks, the direction has clearly changed.
Stability with Flexibility
The consensus among large truckload operators is that the market remains oversupplied, but that this may not last. While many had previously forecasted an imminent tightening due to smaller operator failures, current commentary is more reserved. Executives now emphasise flexibility, focusing on fleet optimisation and the ability to scale up quickly should conditions tighten.
Conversations with customers are increasingly centred on supply chain agility. Shippers want assurance that their carriers can flex capacity to match service expectations. Not in anticipation of a surge, but in preparation for one.
With capacity still abundant and demand muted, most truckload executives are not forecasting a rapid recovery. However, they are investing strategically, adding trucks where demand or engineered solutions call for it.
This slow, deliberate approach suggests a freight market not yet recovering, but quietly repositioning. For now, the balance of power remains with freight buyers, but carriers are ensuring they’ll be ready when that changes.
Stay Ahead with Flexible Road Freight Solutions
As the truckload market gradually rebalances, having the right logistics partner is more important than ever. Global Forwarding provides agile, scalable road freight services across the United States – helping you stay resilient in a shifting landscape.
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