After more than two years in the doldrums, the US trucking sector may finally be turning a corner, with recent data revealing some growth optimism.
The American Trucking Associations’ (ATA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index recorded its strongest sequential rise in years, climbing 3% from January on a seasonally adjusted basis, following a modest increase the previous month. While the unadjusted index slipped from 110.0 in January to 104.8 in February, the broader picture points to renewed momentum.
According to ATA analysis, the improvement is partly driven by front-loaded imports ahead of anticipated tariffs, but also indicates underlying strength in demand. This comes after a prolonged recession in the truck freight market, characterised by weak volumes and depressed pricing.
Another key barometer of the market, the Cass Freight Index, paints a more nuanced picture. Its shipment component rose 10.5% between January and February and on a seasonally adjusted basis, February shipments were up 4.9%, hinting at a possible stabilisation in volumes.
Industry analysts suggest that harsh winter conditions in January and tariff-driven activity in February may have masked a more genuine underlying improvement. At the same time, some structural shifts may help rebalance the market.
A slowdown in the expansion of private fleets could ease pressure on the for-hire sector. In recent years, companies have increasingly invested in their own fleets, contributing to excess capacity and keeping spot rates low. However, heightened economic uncertainty and rising recession risks may be causing firms to pull back on private fleet investments.
Challenges do remain. Weak consumer spending and sluggish industrial activity could weigh on freight volumes and delay any sustained recovery in pricing. New tariffs may further complicate the outlook, especially for small operators and owner-drivers. Lower used truck values have allowed some struggling businesses to remain afloat, as banks hesitate to repossess vehicles. But a jump in new truck prices—fuelled by tariffs—could change the equation and trigger a wave of foreclosures, thinning out the market.
For now, the signs are mixed. February’s data brings a measure of hope, but recovery will likely be gradual and uneven. The next few months will be critical in determining whether these early gains signal a true turning point or just another bump on a long, rough road.
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