The outlook for US ocean freight in 2026 is being shaped by two powerful and unpredictable forces: a potential wave of inventory replenishment and the gradual return of container vessels to Red Sea and Suez Canal routings.
Each carries the capacity to significantly alter global network flows and US supply chain performance.
After a year of tariff-driven import declines and weakened trade volumes, with US sea freight imports from Asia down over 11% US inventories are widely believed to have been drawn down to unsustainable levels.
A broad-based restocking cycle, the odds for which exceed 50% would inject substantial new demand into eastbound trans-Pacific trades, with container volumes potentially rising 4%, well above the growth seen in 2025. Early indicators suggest that even a moderate replenishment phase could lift US container demand by several percentage points, creating tighter vessel utilisation and higher rate volatility.
The second major variable is the timing and scale of carriers returning to the Red Sea. Although some operators have begun cautiously reintroducing services with naval escorts, industry consensus remains that a full reversion will require both operational confidence and improvements in insurance, security and crew safety conditions.
Any wide-scale shift back to Suez routings would cause immediate ripple effects: vessel bunching, port congestion, and trucking and equipment shortages, particularly across North Europe, the Mediterranean and parts of Asia. These disruptions would inevitably spill into US East Coast services due to schedule ties with Europe–Asia rotations.
Most carriers are therefore expected to adopt hybrid schedules, blending Cape of Good Hope and Red Sea transits until stability is assured. Market analysts note that the period after Lunar New Year, typically a seasonal demand trough, may offer a potential window for such a transition, but insurers rowing back war-risk will be a living factor.
For now, US sea freight market dynamics continue to reflect the longer African routing introduced in late 2023, but preparations for a potential shift are underway. The priority for shippers is preparedness. Building flexible booking windows, booking early, diversifying port options, reinforcing supplier communication and monitoring carrier schedule changes will be essential.
With both demand and routing patterns in flux, proactive planning will be the greatest safeguard against volatility as 2026 unfolds.
Stay ahead of 2026’s shifting ocean freight dynamics. Speak to our ocean freight team for planning support, lane strategy and reliable capacity solutions.
