The impact of events in the Middle East is affect freight networks far beyond the region itself, with knock-on impacts emerging across both air cargo and ocean shipping markets.
What initially appeared to be a regional security issue centred around Gulf airspace restrictions and the Strait of Hormuz is now influencing how cargo moves between Asia, Europe and the Americas.
Carriers and airlines are adjusting networks and schedules, while a growing range of operational surcharges and contingency measures are being introduced as transport providers respond to longer routes, heightened risk and volatile fuel costs.
Air cargo networks under pressure
Air cargo capacity has started to stabilise slightly, but significant gaps remain across several major trade corridors.
Global cargo capacity is currently estimated to be around 8% below normal levels, improving from the sharper decline seen earlier in the week. However, the regional impact remains pronounced.
Outbound cargo capacity from the Middle East to Europe remains more than 50% below typical levels, while capacity between Asia Pacific and the Middle East is still significantly reduced due to ongoing disruption at key Gulf hub airports.
Airlines have responded by increasing direct Asia–Europe flights, bypassing traditional Gulf stopovers and operating longer non-stop sectors.
However, these adjustments cannot fully replicate the connectivity normally provided by the Middle East’s hub-and-spoke air cargo networks.
Approximately a quarter of China–Europe air cargo capacity normally transits through Gulf hubs, meaning the loss of these connections is creating structural gaps in the global air freight system.
South Asian export markets affected
The disruption is particularly visible across South and Southeast Asia, where cargo flows to Europe and North America frequently rely on Middle Eastern transit hubs.
Available capacity across South Asia–Europe corridors has fallen significantly, leaving exporters seeking alternative routings.
Markets such as India and Bangladesh are already seeing tightening space and increased booking pressure as shipments that would normally route via Gulf hubs seek alternative options.
With capacity constrained, cargo destined for Europe and North America is beginning to accumulate at some Asian airports, creating the early stages of a supply-demand imbalance.
Ocean shipping networks adjusting
Ocean freight markets are also experiencing a cascading effect as carriers adjust networks to maintain service continuity.
Although only a relatively small portion of the global fleet is physically located near the Persian Gulf, the operational impact is much broader.
More than 120 liner services include at least one Arabian Gulf port in their rotations, meaning a significant share of global container capacity is indirectly affected when schedules or port calls change.
In response, carriers are already adjusting service rotations, redeploying vessels and reviewing sailing schedules across several trade lanes.
The increasing use of Cape of Good Hope routings is helping vessels avoid higher-risk areas, but the longer voyages are tying up ships for extended periods and reducing effective global capacity.
Additional surcharges and operational measures
Alongside operational adjustments, carriers have begun introducing a range of temporary surcharges linked to security risks, fuel volatility and longer voyage distances.
These charges may appear under various names — including War Risk, Emergency Conflict or Fuel-related adjustments — and can vary by carrier and trade lane.
In some cases, the surcharges currently being discussed across the market are substantial and may reach four-figure levels per container, depending on the route and equipment type.
Carriers are also introducing operational measures designed to prevent congestion at ports handling diverted cargo.
For example, some terminals are now requiring containers to be collected from the quay within strict time limits, with additional charges applied if containers remain longer than permitted.
Such measures are intended to keep terminals fluid as shipping networks adapt to the changing operational environment.
Upstream effects becoming visible
The ripple effects are already emerging at origin ports.
In Bangladesh, more than 1,000 containers are currently waiting at Chittagong port and inland depots, while additional shipments remain held at intermediate ports awaiting onward movement.
Similar patterns are beginning to appear across several Asian export hubs as vessel schedules change and airlines rebalance capacity.
Nearly every major Asian export gateway is now experiencing some level of disruption, whether through delayed sailings, reduced air capacity or uncertainty around onward routing.
Supporting customers through disruption
Events such as these demonstrate how quickly regional developments can influence global supply chains.
At Global Forwarding, our teams are actively monitoring developments across both ocean carrier networks and international air cargo markets.
We are working closely with customers to review potential impacts, evaluate alternative routing options and help secure capacity where possible.
Customers with shipments moving through — or typically routed via — the Middle East are encouraged to contact their Global Forwarding representative to review contingency options and obtain the latest operational guidance.
