Global airfreight demand remains resilient overall, but the market is becoming increasingly fragmented. A positive global statistic can mask very different conditions at individual airports, across specific trade lanes and between cargo sectors.
For shippers, this means that capacity from one Asian gateway may be readily available, while another may face constrained uplift, rising rates or disruption caused by weather, e-commerce policy changes or a surge in technology-related cargo.
The latest WorldACD data reflects this uneven picture. Global tonnage fell 4% in the latest reporting week but remained 1% above the previous year. Individual Asian origins, however, experienced movements ranging from double-digit growth to double-digit decline.
Asia–Europe adjusts to changing e-commerce flows
The Asia–Europe airfreight market is recalibrating after changes to EU treatment of low-value e-commerce consignments.
The €3 charge introduced at the start of July on parcels valued below €150 has affected a major source of recent airfreight growth. By week 32, China–Europe e-commerce volumes were 8% lower year on year, while Hong Kong–Europe volumes fell by almost 30%.
Asia Pacific–Europe tonnage declined overall, but spot rates increased on several key
lanes. Asia Pacific–Europe pricing rose 1%, led by a 6% rise from China and a 3% increase from Hong Kong.
The contrast between softer volumes and firmer pricing highlights how capacity is moving between markets. Freighter capacity that previously served e-commerce demand appears to be redeployed, changing the balance of available space and supporting rates even as total volumes fall.
Weather disruption adds another layer of uncertainty. Typhoon Dolphin caused more than 1,000 flight cancellations in Shanghai, contributing to an 8% week-on-week reduction in total air cargo from the gateway. If disruption at Chinese seaports delays ocean shipments, some cargo may also transfer to airfreight as supply chains seek to recover lost time.
For shippers, regional market averages are no longer enough. Capacity, cost and service reliability need to be assessed at the individual origin level, taking account of local cargo mix, carrier networks and alternative gateway options.
Technology demand creates pressure on key origins
Transpacific conditions underline the same trend. Asia Pacific–US tonnage declined 4% week on week in early August and spot rates fell 3%, suggesting relative balance across the region. Yet this regional view hides significant origin-level variation.
Japan–US volumes rose 12% in one week, while Taiwan and Indonesia recorded declines of around 10%. Technology cargo from Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam continues to support demand across selected origin markets.
AI servers, semiconductors, electronics and data-centre infrastructure are especially significant because they are high-value, time-sensitive and often tied to fixed deployment schedules. Airfreight is therefore often the preferred mode even where ocean services are available.
This can affect shippers outside the technology sector. Freight moving through the same airport, using the same freighter networks or competing during concentrated production periods can encounter tighter capacity and firmer pricing.
As the fourth quarter approaches, businesses should review where their cargo originates, what competing cargo is moving through those gateways and which alternative airports, carriers or routings could protect supply-chain continuity. Further typhoon activity across Asia could intensify these localised pressures.
Transatlantic capacity remains comparatively stable
The transatlantic market is currently more stable, supported by the additional belly-hold capacity available through summer passenger schedules.
WorldACD data shows North America–Europe volumes fell 5% over the latest two-week comparison, while European exports to North America increased 3%. Conditions are therefore varying by direction rather than following a single transatlantic pattern.
This may create opportunities for shippers with flexible schedules. However, the position could change as airlines transition from summer to winter schedules and belly-hold capacity reduces.
Plan airfreight around specific origins
Airfreight is becoming a market of individual gateways rather than broad regional averages. Regulation is reshaping e-commerce flows, technology demand is concentrating around selected Asian airports, weather can remove capacity with little warning and passenger schedules continue to influence transatlantic availability.
Shippers can manage this exposure by:
- Separating genuinely time-critical cargo from shipments with more flexible delivery windows.
- Securing capacity earlier from constrained origins and ahead of peak periods.
- Maintaining alternative gateways, carriers and routing options.
- Reviewing where air, ocean, rail and road services can work together to protect supply-chain performance.
Global Forwarding connects shippers with airfreight capacity across global markets, identifying viable origin options, manage changing capacity conditions and coordinating freight through to final destination.
Speak to Global Forwarding early about your upcoming airfreight requirements, alternative routings and capacity planning for Q4.
