After five months of rising ocean freight rates, the transpacific market may finally be approaching a change in direction, but another source of cost pressure is emerging beyond the port.
China’s Golden Week traditionally marks the end of the main transpacific peak, while additional vessel capacity and early signs of softer spot pricing suggest the extraordinary upward run in ocean freight could begin to moderate.
For shippers, however, that does not mean the total cost or complexity of Asia–US movements is necessarily falling.
Carriers continue to manage vessel capacity, schedule reliability remains under pressure and sharply higher US diesel prices are feeding directly into inland transport costs.
Ocean pricing shows early signs of change
The scale of this year’s transpacific increase has been exceptional.
By 17 September, average Far East–US West Coast spot rates had risen 324% since late February, while East Coast rates were 325% higher. That left them only 18% and 11% respectively below their pandemic-era records.
Strong East Coast pricing encouraged carriers to add capacity, with offered Far East–US East Coast space increasing by approximately 7% between August and September.
Combined with the end of the pre-Golden Week cargo rush, that additional capacity could begin to moderate the market.
There are tentative signs this may already be happening. The Shanghai Containerised Freight Index recorded a 1% decline on both US coast trades in its latest reading, potentially interrupting the five-month upward trend.
How far rates adjust will depend heavily on carrier capacity management.
Blank sailings can change the picture quickly
Across the major East–West trades, 58 of 712 scheduled sailings are expected to be cancelled between weeks 40 and 44, representing an 8% cancellation rate.
Almost two-thirds of those withdrawals are concentrated on the eastbound transpacific.
Carriers therefore retain considerable scope to tighten available space if seasonal demand falls.
Vessel utilisation on the eastbound trade has also been running approximately 8% above pre-pandemic levels, while congestion and blank sailings continue to affect schedule reliability.
The result is an important distinction between obtaining a booking and achieving the planned transit.
A rolled booking combined with a late-running vessel can add close to two weeks to a shipment. Although congestion at Chinese ports has eased from its early September peak, some disruption has shifted towards Southeast Asia and continues to affect vessel rotations.
US diesel changes the landed-cost equation
The next source of pressure is emerging after cargo reaches the US.
National average diesel prices reached $6.53 per gallon on 21 September, increasing by more than 24 cents in a week and $2.78 compared with a year earlier.
The immediate impact is primarily appearing through fuel surcharges rather than stronger underlying trucking demand.
Industry estimates suggest fuel increases have pushed truckload costs approximately 25–30% higher since the beginning of the year, while total less-than-truckload shipment costs are around 20% higher.
There are also substantial regional differences. West Coast diesel averaged $7.46 per gallon compared with $6.27 on the East Coast, making gateway and inland-routing decisions potentially more significant to total landed cost.
Spot trucking prices typically take several weeks to reflect sudden fuel increases. Smaller carriers may therefore face a period in which costs rise faster than the rates they can recover.
If that forces capacity from the market, inland rates could increase even without a significant rise in freight volumes.
Look beyond the ocean rate
October may mark a transition rather than a normalisation of the transpacific market.
Ocean rates have scope to soften as peak-season demand fades, but blank sailings could restrict the extent of any correction. Schedule disruption remains an operational risk, while inland fuel costs are becoming a larger part of the overall freight equation.
For importers, comparing ocean rates alone consequently provides only part of the picture.
Gateway selection, vessel reliability, inland distance, available trucking capacity and fuel surcharges can all materially influence the final cost and transit time.
Global Forwarding connects the Hecny Group’s extensive Asian network with our US coverage, to provide coordinated support across the complete transpacific movement.
Talk to us about your Asia–US shipments and the routing options that can help control capacity, transit time and landed cost.
