Air cargo is entering the final quarter with stronger demand, elevated pricing and increasing pressure across several important trade lanes, putting capacity and forward planning firmly back on shippers’ agendas.
Rather than a single global squeeze, the developing peak season is creating a more fragmented market. Demand is accelerating from major Asian origins, transpacific volumes remain particularly strong and European routes are beginning to firm, while capacity growth continues to lag the increase in cargo.
The latest TAC Index and WorldACD figures suggest those pressures were building as September drew to a close.
Demand is growing faster than capacity
Global chargeable weight increased for a fourth consecutive week at the end of September, rising 2% week on week and 8% compared with the same period last year.
Capacity, by comparison, was only 4% higher year on year. Asia Pacific remains a major source of growth, with origin tonnages 11% higher than a year earlier. European origins increased 6%, while North American volumes rebounded strongly following the Labor Day slowdown and were 8% above last year.
Pricing reflects the stronger market. WorldACD’s worldwide full-market rate was 24% higher year on year in week 38, while average spot rates were up 33%.
Spot pricing from Asia Pacific was 30% higher, Europe 29% and North America 34%.
The TAC Index subsequently recorded another weekly increase, leaving its global airfreight index 21.7% above the equivalent period in 2025.
Fuel is adding another source of pressure, with TAC reporting jet fuel prices substantially above their level a year earlier as the industry enters its busiest quarter.
Asia moves to the centre of the Q4 market
Conditions across Asia will be particularly important for European, UK and US importers during the coming weeks.
Hong Kong outbound pricing increased 3% in the week to 28 September and stood 20.6% above last year. Rates from India also strengthened, while pricing between China and Europe continued to firm.
WorldACD recorded increases on several Asia Pacific–Europe origins, including mainland China, Hong Kong, Japan and South Korea.
The transpacific market remains stronger still. Asia Pacific–US demand increased 13% year on year, supported by significant growth from South Korea, Japan and China.
Average spot rates remained broadly stable week on week but were approximately 40% higher than a year earlier.
Conditions into Europe are less uniform. China and Hong Kong volumes have yet to recover fully from the disruption that followed changes to the EU’s treatment of low-value parcel traffic in July, although pricing from several major origins is now moving higher.
Golden Week concentrates demand
China’s National Day Golden Week from 1–7 October adds another important variable.
Following closely after the Mid-Autumn Festival, the holiday concentrates production, cargo handovers and export bookings into a shorter period, potentially creating localised pressure before and immediately after the shutdown.
Across Hecny Group’s extensive Asian network, strengthening general cargo demand is already evident in key origin markets as exporters move shipments around the holiday period.
Additional capacity and charter activity have helped prevent a more dramatic increase in rates so far. But the combination of stronger volumes, higher fuel costs and the traditional
Q4 uplift means individual routes could tighten quickly as October progresses.
Geopolitical disruption is also limiting capacity in some markets, particularly around the Gulf.
Peak season will reward flexibility
The emerging picture is not one of universal capacity shortages. It is increasingly about securing the right capacity on the right route at the right time.
That distinction matters when market conditions can change considerably between individual origins and destinations.
Shippers moving goods between Asia, Europe, the UK and North America may need to consider alternative gateways, carriers, flight combinations or routings as Q4 demand develops.
Early visibility of upcoming requirements also gives forwarders more opportunity to protect capacity before individual markets tighten.
Global Forwarding combines strong airfreight expertise across the US, UK and Europe with the reach of Hecny Group, one of Asia’s largest freight forwarding networks. That connected network gives customers local support at origin and destination, strong carrier relationships and the flexibility to respond as Q4 conditions change.
If you have peak-season, time-critical or high-value cargo moving between Asia, North America, Europe, or the UK speak to Global Forwarding about securing capacity early and building the routing options that keep your supply chain moving.
