Asia–Europe ocean freight is entering an unusual period in which softer underlying demand and substantial scheduled capacity could coexist with unreliable sailings, short-notice cancellations and continuing port disruption.
For European and UK importers, that means that any falling freight rates should not necessarily be interpreted as improving market conditions.
October brings several moving parts together: China’s Golden Week slowdown, delayed vessels returning to schedules, carriers attempting to support rates, further services returning to the Suez Canal and residual congestion across major Asian ports.
The result could be considerable movement in both available capacity and sailing schedules during the coming weeks.
More capacity but not necessarily more certainty
Around 1.5 million TEU of Asia–North Europe capacity is scheduled across the four-week Golden Week period, which is 27% more than last year and 60% above pre-pandemic averages.
However, part of that apparent increase reflects vessels returning late rather than genuinely new capacity.
Repeated typhoons and severe congestion at Chinese ports have pushed ships significantly behind schedule. As these vessels return alongside normally scheduled departures, 12 double sailings* are expected across Asia–Europe and Mediterranean services during the first two weeks of October.
*In container shipping, a “double sailing” means a round trip (one departure and one return) so 12 double sailings equals 12 outward journeys and 12 return journeys.
At the same time, Golden Week factory closures traditionally reduce export volumes.
That combination could move the market rapidly from constrained effective capacity towards temporary oversupply, to which carriers have a familiar response available: blank sailings.
Significant capacity withdrawals could therefore emerge at relatively short notice, particularly during mid-to-late October, increasing the risk of cancellations, changed departures and rolled cargo.
Suez changes the capacity equation
The gradual return of container services to the Suez Canal adds another dimension.
Suez routings shorten Asia–Europe round voyages compared with sailing around the Cape of Good Hope, effectively releasing vessel capacity back into carrier networks.
Asia–North Europe services remain cautious, but the shift is becoming more visible. Around 30% of backhaul capacity used Suez during September, with that share expected to approach 40% during October.
Some carriers are also using the shorter route to return delayed vessels to Asia more quickly following severe port congestion.
In time, greater Suez utilisation could support shorter transit times and improve effective capacity between Asia, Europe and the UK.
The immediate transition may be less straightforward. Changing rotations and network adjustments can introduce additional schedule uncertainty, while security conditions in the Red Sea remain fluid and carriers retain the option of returning to Cape routings.
Reliability remains the critical issue
Carriers are attempting to reverse a prolonged decline in Asia–Europe freight rates, with increases planned for the second half of October.
Whether those increases hold will depend heavily on how much capacity is removed following Golden Week.
For shippers, however, price is only one consideration. Multiple typhoons over seven weeks created severe disruption at Shanghai, Ningbo-Zhoushan and Yantian, with berthing delays that reached up to 14 days. On-time performance fell to 62% in August, while late Asia–Europe vessels averaged delays of five days.
Although conditions are improving, vessel bunching, container backlogs and post-Golden Week network adjustments could continue affecting schedules throughout October.
The more immediate concern is therefore not the amount of nominal capacity in the market, but how much of it will operate when and where expected.
European ports add another variable
Destination-side disruption could compound those problems.
The prospect of widespread industrial action at Germany’s ports has receded after port workers accepted new contract terms intended to avert indefinite strikes at Hamburg, Bremen, Bremerhaven, Emden, Brake and Wilhelmshaven. However, the union, ver.di, cautioned that “the employers’ side still has to approve the result”.
The agreement reduces the risk of further cargo backlogs, although congestion persists, with yard utilisation at 65% in Wilhelmshaven, 80% in Hamburg and 90% in Bremerhaven.
German shippers also face hinterland disruption caused by low water levels on the Rhine, which restrict barge movements to and from Rotterdam and Antwerp.
Significant disruption at major North European gateways could have effects beyond Germany as carriers adjust port rotations and cargo is redirected through alternative ports.
The transatlantic market presents a different picture. Europe–US East Coast spot rates remain substantially above last year’s levels, while carriers are using blank sailings to manage winter capacity.
For European and UK exporters, early allocation planning therefore remains important on North Atlantic services as well.
Flexibility becomes more valuable
October could bring softer underlying Asia–Europe rates and more effective vessel supply, but neither guarantees a predictable shipping environment.
Blank sailings, congestion, changing Suez routings and carrier network adjustments mean flexibility across carriers, gateways and services could prove more valuable than simply securing the lowest available rate.
Global Forwarding combines strong carrier relationships with the extensive Hecny Group network across Asia, Europe and the UK, giving customers access to alternative services and routings when schedules change.
Talk to our ocean freight team about building greater flexibility into your Q4 movements.
