Ocean freight rates are rising again on Asia–Europe routes, but the recovery remains fragile. Shipping lines are introducing higher tariffs and withdrawing sailings to support pricing, while uneven demand and improving port conditions complicate the outlook.
After several months of downward pressure, Asia–Europe container freight rates have reversed direction during October, with two consecutive weeks of increases on the principal routes to Northern Europe and the Mediterranean.
The recovery comes as shipping lines introduce new Freight All Kinds (FAK) tariffs, reduce available vessel capacity and prepare for annual contract negotiations.
Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) recorded further gains on 22 October, extending the recovery that began the previous week.
On Asia–Europe routes, Shanghai–Rotterdam rates increased 3% week on week, while Shanghai–Genoa rose 5%.The transpacific market also strengthened, with Shanghai–Los Angeles up 2% and Shanghai–New York increasing 1%. Meanwhile, Rotterdam–New York rates rose 3%.
The composite WCI increased 2% during the week to 22 October, following a 3% rise in the previous assessment.
The overall direction has improved, but the recovery is not yet sufficiently established to suggest sustained rate increases.
Shipping lines increase blank sailings
Capacity management is playing a central role in carriers’ efforts to support freight rates.
Rather than relying on stronger cargo demand, shipping lines are reducing available space by cancelling scheduled departures.
Drewry reported eight blank sailings on Asia–Europe services for the week beginning 26 October, compared with just two in the preceding week.
The broader outlook also points to continued capacity management.
Across the major East–West trades, carriers have announced 56 cancelled sailings between weeks 44 and 48, representing approximately 8% of 714 scheduled departures.
Asia–Europe and Mediterranean services account for 54% of these cancellations, making them the principal focus of capacity reductions.
Although 92% of scheduled services are still expected to operate, the concentration of cancellations could tighten space availability on particular departures and increase the risk of cargo being rolled.
For shippers, this creates an important distinction between the amount of capacity deployed across a trade and the space actually available on preferred sailings.
November rate increases face an uncertain reception
Shipping lines are also attempting to strengthen prices through successive rounds of FAK tariff increases.
Following revised rates introduced in mid-October, further increases have been announced for 1 November.
Proposed tariffs on Asia–Europe services include increases targeting Northern Europe and Mediterranean destinations, with some published levels substantially above recent market assessments.
However, the extent to which carriers can achieve these prices remains uncertain.
Blank sailings can temporarily tighten supply, but sustained rate increases will depend on the balance between available capacity and actual bookings.
Improving Asian port conditions add another dimension
While carriers are withdrawing sailings, operational conditions at several Asian gateways are improving.
At Shanghai, vessel waiting times fell from approximately 97 hours in week 38 to 38 hours in week 42, indicating a substantial easing of earlier congestion.
Improved port productivity can help restore schedule reliability and reduce delays, but it also allows vessels to operate more efficiently.
This may increase effective shipping capacity at the same time carriers are attempting to restrict available space.
Meanwhile, the gradual return of services through the Suez Canal could further influence the supply-demand balance.
Shorter voyages reduce the number of vessels needed to maintain regular schedules, potentially releasing additional capacity into the market as more carriers abandon lengthy Cape of Good Hope diversions.
These developments could make it harder for shipping lines to sustain higher rates without corresponding growth in cargo demand.
What we do
The short-term outlook suggests continued attempts to strengthen rates into November, supported by capacity management and revised tariffs.
However, improving port conditions, the gradual Suez recovery and uncertain demand could limit the durability of these increases, which is why we:
Monitor individual sailings. Blank sailings can affect space availability and transit schedules even when overall trade capacity appears sufficient.
Compare carrier options. Differences between published tariffs and actual market offers may create opportunities to secure competitive arrangements.
Build flexibility into shipping plans. Changing vessel rotations, Suez routings and schedule adjustments can affect delivery dates and inland transport connections.
Consider total supply-chain costs. A lower freight rate may offer little benefit if unreliable schedules create additional inventory, storage or distribution expenses.
With 12 offices across China and established ocean carrier relationships, Global Forwarding helps customers assess changing freight rates, compare service options and secure suitable capacity on Asia–Europe routes.
Talk to Global Forwarding about your upcoming shipments and how flexible carrier selection and informed booking decisions can help protect reliability and control costs.
