Global air cargo rates have climbed beyond the peaks of the previous two years, driven by surging technology shipments, higher fuel costs and renewed demand following China’s Golden Week holiday.
The traditional year-end airfreight peak is gathering momentum, with growing competition for available capacity as manufacturers, retailers and technology companies prepare shipments ahead of November’s online sales events and the Christmas trading period.
However, this year’s peak is developing differently. Investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure is creating substantial demand for high-value, time-sensitive cargo, particularly from Asia to North America, while e-commerce policy changes are reshaping traffic towards Europe.
Combined with geopolitical disruption and sharply higher jet fuel prices, these developments are creating a market where capacity availability and pricing increasingly depend on the origin, destination and type of cargo.
Global rates move above previous peak-season highs
After a brief slowdown during China’s Golden Week holiday, airfreight activity rebounded strongly in October.
The global Baltic Air Freight Index increased 4.7% in the week to 19 October, reaching a level 26.4% higher than a year earlier and exceeding the peaks recorded during the previous two year-end seasons.
WorldACD data for 12–18 October also showed global chargeable weight increasing 2% week on week, with available capacity rising by the same amount as airlines restored freighter operations.
Asia-Pacific led the recovery, recording a 9% weekly increase in cargo volumes as factories resumed production.
However, demand is not the only factor supporting prices. Jet fuel costs have more than doubled year on year, rising approximately 114% by mid-October, increasing operating costs and limiting airlines’ ability to reduce freight rates.
The combination of stronger demand, fuel pressure and geopolitical disruption suggests that airfreight costs could remain elevated throughout the final quarter.
Transpacific demand drives the strongest growth
Asia–North America is currently the standout airfreight market. Cargo volumes from Asia-Pacific to the US increased 14% year on year during the week of 12–18 October, while rates were 41% higher.
Following Golden Week, China and Hong Kong recorded particularly strong weekly recoveries in US-bound cargo, with volumes rising 18% and 27% respectively. The principal driver is growing investment in AI infrastructure.
US airfreight imports reached another record in August, increasing 20% year on year by weight, with computer components and related technology equipment accounting for a significant share of the growth.
Unlike traditional retail peaks, infrastructure investment is not necessarily tied to the Christmas trading calendar. Major technology companies are securing significant blocks of airfreight capacity, and additional demand could tighten the market further as projects accelerate.
Transpacific rates have already risen sharply since early October, with some China–US routes reaching their highest levels of 2026.
Asia–Europe recovery remains uneven
Airfreight markets between Asia and Europe present a contrasting picture. Although volumes recovered following Golden Week, underlying demand remains weaker than on transpacific routes.
WorldACD recorded Asia-Pacific to Europe tonnage 16% below the previous year’s level during the week of 12–18 October, despite a 13% week-on-week rebound.
Changes to EU customs treatment of low-value e-commerce shipments have contributed to the decline, particularly affecting cargo originating in Hong Kong.
China–Europe volumes have shown some improvement compared with the summer, but recovery remains uneven between origins.
Nevertheless, rates are strengthening as the traditional peak approaches, supported by seasonal demand, higher fuel costs and tighter capacity on selected routes.
The contrast highlights an important distinction: rising freight rates do not necessarily indicate equally strong cargo demand across every market.
For European importers, the outlook depends increasingly on specific origins, commodity types and airline capacity rather than a single regional trend.
Transatlantic markets show a more subdued picture
Airfreight conditions between Europe and North America are comparatively less pressured.
Recent rate movements have been mixed, with some softening on services from major European gateways to the US.
In the week to 19 October, outbound Frankfurt and London Heathrow rates declined, but both remained substantially above year-earlier levels, reflecting the wider influence of fuel costs and geopolitical disruption.
Rates from North America to Europe and the UK also eased slightly, contrasting with stronger demand on routes from the US to Asia and South America.
For transatlantic shippers, this may provide greater flexibility than on the busiest transpacific routes, although elevated operating costs continue to influence pricing.
Secure capacity when markets tighten
With an extensive Asian network, including 12 Hecny Group offices across China, Global Forwarding combines local origin expertise with established airline relationships to help customers secure capacity and evaluate alternative routings.
Our teams support international airfreight movements across Asia, Europe and North America, helping shippers balance urgency, reliability and cost.
Talk to Global Forwarding about your peak-season airfreight requirements and how early planning, flexible routing and dependable capacity can protect your delivery commitments.
