Global supply chains have entered the second half of 2026 on a firmer footing, with freight markets showing greater stability than earlier in the year, but fuel cost elevation is inevitable after renewed US/Iran hostilities.
Economic indicators remain broadly encouraging. The US economy is projected to grow by between 2.1% and 2.5% in 2026, while growth in both the UK and EU is forecast at around 1%. Inflation is expected to remain relatively stable at 2.8% in the UK and EU, compared with 2.4% in the United States.
However, the operating environment remains highly sensitive to geopolitical events. Renewed tensions between the United States and Iran have driven oil prices higher, increasing the prospect of additional fuel surcharges across ocean, air and road freight.
At the same time, while capacity continues to recover across most transport modes, market conditions are becoming increasingly trade lane-specific, with regional disruption, changing demand patterns and carrier network adjustments creating significant variation in service availability and pricing.
Ocean freight
Ocean freight markets remain firm as the third quarter begins, with resilient demand, improving capacity and renewed geopolitical uncertainty creating increasingly diverse conditions across global trade lanes.
Peak season demand continues to support high vessel utilisation, while carriers restore services and reduce blank sailings. Drewry forecasts that 93% of scheduled east-west sailings will operate during weeks 28–32, reflecting improving network reliability despite ongoing congestion at selected ports.
Attention has shifted from capacity constraints to fuel costs following renewed US-Iran tensions, which pushed Brent crude up around 6% and increased bunker prices across major refuelling hubs. Carriers are expected to recover these higher operating costs through additional emergency bunker surcharges during July.
Market conditions continue to diverge by trade lane. Asia-Europe remains the strongest-performing corridor, supported by freight all kinds (FAK) increases, peak season surcharges and resilient demand. Transpacific capacity is expanding, which should gradually ease pressure on US West Coast services, while export markets to Asia, Oceania and North America are becoming more competitive as equipment availability improves.
In contrast, the Middle East remains capacity constrained, and congestion at India’s Nhava Sheva and Mundra ports continues to reflect cargo diversions linked to regional instability. Overall, freight markets are expected to remain firm, although additional capacity should moderate the pace of further rate increases.
Air freight
Air freight markets have become more balanced following the disruption experienced earlier this year, although pricing remains elevated by historical standards. Global demand continues to outperform expectations, with WorldACD reporting worldwide cargo tonnage up 9% year on year during June and Asia Pacific exports increasing 10%.
Capacity is also recovering, driven by expanding freighter fleets, but passenger belly-hold capacity remains below last year’s level, keeping effective supply tighter than headline figures suggest.
Premium demand continues to underpin the market, particularly for technology products, AI infrastructure, pharmaceuticals and other high-value, time-critical shipments where speed and reliability outweigh transport costs. Trade lane performance is becoming increasingly differentiated, with Hong Kong-North America and Shanghai-North America both recording further rate increases during June as demand remains robust.
Operational challenges also continue to influence pricing. EASA’s guidance to avoid Iranian, Iraqi and Lebanese airspace until the end of August is forcing longer routings between Europe and Asia, increasing fuel consumption and reducing aircraft utilisation. At the same time, renewed US-Iran tensions have lifted oil prices, raising the prospect of higher jet fuel costs and revised fuel surcharges. Although recovering freighter capacity should help moderate further rate increases, elevated operating costs and sustained premium demand are expected to keep air freight rates above long-term averages throughout the third quarter.
Road freight
Road freight markets are strengthening on both sides of the Atlantic, with tightening capacity supporting firmer pricing and improving demand.
In the United States, constrained truckload availability is diverting more freight into less-than-truckload (LTL) networks, increasing shipment volumes and pushing prices higher. Capacity has tightened further across the Midwest following regional consolidation, while the US LTL Producer Price Index rose 20.9% year on year in May. With LTL capacity still constrained following Yellow’s exit from the market in 2023, carriers expect favourable trading conditions to continue through the remainder of 2026 and into 2027.
European road freight markets have also strengthened during early summer as improving manufacturing activity, recovering cross-border trade and firmer consumer demand support higher transport volumes across the UK and Europe. The TEG Road Transport Price Index increased 6.4% year on year during June, while carrier availability rose 16.5% as networks recovered from seasonal disruption, improving service reliability despite continued pressure on operating costs.
Cross-border freight remains the strongest-performing segment, supported by resilient UK-EU trade, near-shoring initiatives and growing investment in regional distribution networks that strengthen supply chain resilience. At the same time, structural changes continue to reshape the market. Expanding carbon-based tolling schemes, ongoing driver shortages and investment in lower-emission vehicles are encouraging greater digitalisation, operational efficiency and consolidation rather than aggressive price competition.
Road freight pricing is expected to remain firm through the third quarter. Although diesel prices eased during June, they remain well above last year’s levels, while renewed Middle East tensions have increased the risk of higher fuel costs. Combined with rising labour and environmental compliance costs, these pressures are expected to keep transport rates above historical averages through the remainder of the summer.
In a market defined by tightening ocean and air capacity, elevated fuel costs and gradually firming road conditions, proactive planning is essential. Global Forwarding combines global network reach with strong carrier relationships and disciplined procurement to help protect cost and service performance, even as peak season pressures intensify.
Contact us to explore how structured planning, multi‑modal flexibility and proactive carrier management can safeguard your supply chain through the summer period and beyond. The Hecny Group and Global Forwarding is ready to support your next move with confidence.
