Air freight conditions out of Asia are beginning to shift as Europe stabilises after its summer correction, transpacific demand remains comparatively strong and capacity follows the markets offering carriers the best returns.
For importers, the important development is not simply whether overall air freight demand is rising or falling. It is how quickly conditions are diverging between destinations and individual Asian origins.
China and Hong Kong volumes to Europe have shown their first signs of stabilisation after weeks of decline, but remain substantially below last year. Across the Pacific, China and Hong Kong volumes to the US remain ahead year on year, while rates are considerably firmer.
At the same time, strong demand from technology manufacturing centres and the approaching Golden Week and year-end peak are adding further pressure to parts of the Asian market.
The result is an increasingly fragmented picture in which the right origin, gateway, routing and capacity strategy could matter more than headline regional averages.
Europe stabilises after the summer correction
Combined volumes increased 1% week on week during 17–23 August, their first weekly increase since early June. Wider Asia Pacific–Europe traffic increased 3%.
That does not mean demand has fully recovered. Mainland China–Europe tonnage remained 8% below last year, while Hong Kong–Europe volumes were 33% lower.
Hong Kong has been particularly exposed to the reduction in low-value e-commerce traffic following changes to the EU’s treatment of these imports from 1 July.
The latest improvement therefore looks less like a return to previous demand levels and more like the market beginning to establish a new baseline.
For European importers, the question is what happens next. Post-summer activity is returning just as businesses begin preparing for Golden Week, Black Friday, Christmas and year-end requirements.
European rates are already responding
The most important signal may be coming from pricing rather than volumes.
China–Europe spot rates fell for six consecutive weeks between mid-June and the end of July as e-commerce traffic declined. By week 31 they had fallen around 30% from their June peak.
But carriers responded by adjusting capacity.
China–Europe spot rates subsequently increased for three consecutive weeks through week 34, recovering around 9% from their July low and standing 13% above the equivalent period last year.
Across Asia Pacific–Europe, spot pricing remained stable week on week and 15% higher year on year.
That suggests European importers cannot assume weaker volumes will automatically translate into progressively cheaper capacity. Airlines and freighter operators can adapt their networks as demand changes, limiting excess space and protecting yields.
The transpacific tells a different story
Conditions into the US remain notably firmer. Asia Pacific–US volumes were broadly flat week on week during week 34, but the underlying China and Hong Kong figures remained positive compared with last year.
Mainland China–US volumes were 11% higher year on year, while Hong Kong–US traffic was 9% higher.
Asia Pacific–US spot rates remained around 32% higher than a year earlier. China and Hong Kong–US pricing has also remained relatively stable in recent weeks, despite being below the peaks reached earlier in 2026.
For shippers, this matters beyond the transpacific itself. Aircraft and freighter capacity can move towards markets offering stronger returns. Firm US demand can therefore influence the amount of capacity available for European cargo, particularly as peak-season requirements build.
Golden Week brings the next test
The approaching Chinese Golden Week creates an obvious pressure point.
Factories traditionally accelerate production and shipments ahead of the holiday, while importers begin positioning goods for Black Friday, Christmas and year-end demand.
That seasonal build-up is arriving in a market where Europe has only recently stabilised, transpacific demand remains comparatively strong and several Asian origins are already experiencing firmer conditions.
Weather disruption adds another risk. Flight cancellations and operational disruption across parts of Asia during the summer demonstrated how quickly available capacity can disappear, while disruption to ocean freight can generate additional demand for urgent air freight.
Waiting for a broad market signal that peak season has begun may therefore mean waiting too long.
Plan for divergence, not one Asia-wide peak
The next phase of the air freight market may not be defined by one uniform peak. China and Hong Kong–Europe traffic is beginning to stabilise after its summer decline, but carriers have already responded and rates have recovered from their lows.<
Across the Pacific, China and Hong Kong volumes remain above last year and pricing is considerably firmer. Meanwhile, technology demand and tighter conditions at individual Asian origins are adding another layer of pressure.
For importers, that makes early planning increasingly important.
Global Forwarding combines one of Asia’s most extensive logistics networks with experienced teams in the US and Europe, giving importers local market intelligence, routing flexibility and air freight options as capacity and demand shift between origins and destinations.
Talk to Global Forwarding about your upcoming Asian air freight requirements. We can assess your Europe and US forecasts, identify where capacity pressure is building and develop routing options before Golden Week and the year-end peak place greater demands on the market.
