The global economy enters the second half of Q3 with improving activity in some markets, but persistent inflation, higher financing costs and geopolitical uncertainty continue to complicate the outlook for international trade.
In the UK and Europe, manufacturing activity has strengthened, with improving new orders and output providing a more positive backdrop for freight demand. Inflation is expected to remain elevated before easing, while restrictive financial conditions continue to weigh on investment and consumer activity.
The US presents a more mixed picture. Inflation remains at 3.4%, while the loss of 23,000 jobs in July points to a softer labour market. Long-term borrowing costs have reached a 25-year high, adding another constraint as businesses contend with trade friction, new tariffs and uncertainty surrounding US trade policy. The trade deficit nevertheless narrowed to $73.3 billion in June.
Against this economic backdrop, freight markets are increasingly diverging. Ocean capacity is improving on some major trades, air cargo continues to grow despite changing Asia–Europe flows, and road freight faces rising operating costs and tightening capacity in both Europe and the United States.
For shippers, this is creating opportunities to secure better terms in some markets, while making forward planning increasingly important where capacity, fuel costs and regulation are exerting renewed pressure.
Ocean freight
More capacity, but a market still shaped by disruption
Global container shipping is becoming more balanced as additional capacity enters major trades, but geopolitical risk, weather disruption and active carrier capacity management continue to prevent a broad return to pre-disruption conditions.
Asia–Europe is showing some of the clearest signs of easing. Capacity has expanded by around 13% year on year against demand growth of almost 12%, improving access to space and creating more competition between carriers. Recent spot-rate movements have reflected that change, with pricing easing on both Asia–North Europe and Mediterranean services.
Conditions on the Transpacific are moving differently. Rates have strengthened recently as carriers restrict available space through blank sailings, illustrating how quickly pricing can change when capacity is adjusted.
Across the major East–West trades, however, the overall network remains relatively resilient. Around 93% of scheduled sailings between mid-August and late September are currently expected to operate, with most announced cancellations concentrated on the Transpacific.
Operational disruption remains an important counterweight to improving capacity. Around 6.5% of global container capacity continues to be absorbed by longer Cape of Good Hope routings, while security concerns around the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz continue to affect carrier planning and fuel costs.
Weather has added another layer of uncertainty. Recent typhoon disruption has affected Asian port operations, while low water on the Rhine is creating problems for inland European transport and connections to major container gateways.
Trade-lane conditions therefore remain highly differentiated. Indian Subcontinent services continue to experience congestion, strong export demand and weaker schedule reliability, while Middle East and Red Sea movements remain particularly exposed to capacity constraints, additional costs and longer lead times.
For shippers, improving Asia–Europe conditions create opportunities to review pricing and allocations, but retaining routing and carrier flexibility remains important while disruption continues elsewhere.
Key points
- Asia–Europe capacity growth is slightly ahead of demand, improving space availability.
- Asia–Europe pricing is easing while recent Transpacific rates have strengthened.
- Around 93% of scheduled East–West sailings are expected to operate over the coming weeks.
- Cape diversions, Middle East security risks and weather disruption continue to affect schedules and costs.
Air freight
Global growth continues as regional markets diverge
Air cargo remains above last year’s levels, but the pattern of demand is changing as regulation, geopolitical disruption and sector-specific requirements reshape individual trade lanes.
Worldwide air cargo tonnages increased around 5% year on year in July. This represents slower growth than June, but still points to a market expanding from an already elevated base rather than entering a broad downturn.
Asia–Europe is undergoing one of the most significant adjustments. New EU import requirements introduced in July have increased the cost and complexity of low-value e-commerce movements, with a particularly pronounced effect on China and Hong Kong exports.
Combined China and Hong Kong tonnages to Europe fell around 9% between June and July and were approximately 12% below last year’s level. Hong Kong–Europe traffic has experienced an even sharper decline, reflecting its greater exposure to e-commerce cargo.
Pricing has responded accordingly. Spot rates from China and Hong Kong to Europe have fallen significantly from their June levels, although wider Asia Pacific–Europe rates remain above 2025 levels.
This weakness does not extend across the whole Asian market. Demand for high-tech cargo, including electronics, semiconductors and infrastructure supporting AI and data-centre investment, continues to underpin capacity requirements on selected routes. Spot pricing from several other major Asian origins to Europe also remains substantially above last year.
Middle East capacity is recovering as operating conditions improve, but remains below pre-conflict levels. Fuel and security costs therefore continue to influence pricing and capacity across Gulf-related corridors.
As Q4 approaches, the combination of peak-season demand, high-tech volumes and changes in passenger belly capacity could tighten selected markets quickly. The increasingly divergent nature of the airfreight market makes lane-specific planning and early capacity discussions particularly important.
Key points
- Worldwide air cargo tonnages were around 5% higher year on year in July.
- China and Hong Kong–Europe volumes are falling as new EU import requirements reshape e-commerce flows.
- Asia–Europe spot pricing is easing, although broader rate levels remain above 2025.
- High-tech demand and Middle East capacity constraints continue to support selected markets.
Road freight
Capacity and operating costs keep pressure on rates
Road freight markets on both sides of the Atlantic are entering a firmer period, although different factors are driving pricing and capacity pressure in Europe and the United States.
Across the UK and Europe, fuel, labour, tolls and regulatory costs continue to underpin carrier pricing despite uneven freight demand. UK diesel prices rose sharply earlier this year before partially easing, while continued consolidation following more than 2,000 UK haulage insolvencies between 2021 and 2025 has reduced some of the flexibility available to shippers.
Conditions vary significantly by corridor. UK–Germany contract rates rose around 17% during the first half of 2026, while August holidays, factory shutdowns and potential disruption around Channel crossings are adding seasonal pressure. New tachograph and driving-time requirements for smaller vehicles undertaking international movements are also increasing compliance costs.
The US market is experiencing more pronounced upward pressure. National dry-van spot rates remain more than 40% higher year on year, while shipper-paid spot costs increased almost 50% in July once fuel was included. Diesel prices approximately 40% above last year are amplifying carrier operating costs and customer surcharges.
Regional differences are significant, with the West and Southwest seeing some of the strongest increases. Outbound shipper-paid rates from Los Angeles rose more than 50% year on year, demonstrating how constrained capacity can drive costs even when underlying freight demand remains subdued.
LTL pricing is also strengthening, with general rate increases of around 6–7% and some contract renewals reaching double digits.
With European seasonal constraints and the US pre-holiday shipping period approaching, shippers should secure capacity early, review fuel exposure and avoid assuming softer underlying demand will translate into lower road freight costs.
Key points
- UK and European pricing remains supported by fuel, labour, regulation and carrier consolidation.
- UK–Germany contract rates increased around 17% during H1.
- US dry-van spot rates remain more than 40% higher year on year.
- Q4 seasonality could increase capacity and pricing pressure in both markets.
In a market defined by tightening ocean and air capacity, elevated fuel costs and
gradually firming road conditions, proactive planning is essential. Global
Forwarding combines global network reach with strong carrier relationships and
disciplined procurement to help protect cost and service performance, even as peak
season pressures intensify.
Contact us to explore how structured planning, multi‑modal flexibility and proactive
carrier management can safeguard your supply chain through the summer period
and beyond. The Hecny Group and Global Forwarding is ready to support your next
move with confidence.
