Global freight markets enter the final quarter with demand proving resilient, but rising operating costs, uneven capacity and persistent disruption are creating increasingly different conditions across major trade lanes.
Economic growth remains modest across the UK and Europe, while the US continues to outperform. Inflation, energy costs and uncertainty surrounding monetary policy are limiting confidence, although underlying trade activity remains relatively resilient.
The US remains comparatively robust, with growth forecast at 2.2% in 2026. Strong domestic demand continues to support imports, which increased 4.3% in August against a 1.4% rise in exports. The widening trade deficit reflects continued demand for overseas goods, although tariffs and persistent inflation are complicating sourcing and investment decisions.
The UK economy is forecast to grow by approximately 1.2% in 2026, with expansion expected to remain subdued into 2027. Higher inflation and fiscal uncertainty are weighing on the outlook, while the prospect of further interest-rate increases could constrain investment and consumer spending.
The euro area faces similar challenges. Growth is forecast at around 1.1% this year, with inflation estimated at 3.8% in September. Higher energy costs continue to squeeze purchasing power and industrial competitiveness.
UK goods exports increased 2.8% in July, while EU exports to markets outside the bloc rose 7.8% year on year. However, the wider trade outlook remains uneven, particularly for European exporters exposed to US tariffs and changing demand.
For international shippers, the combination of resilient trade volumes and rising operating costs is creating a complex environment. Ocean freight is experiencing significant rate divergence and schedule disruption, airfreight demand remains strong ahead of peak season, and road transport costs are increasing as capacity tightens.
Ocean freight
Port congestion and carrier capacity adjustments may strengthen market
Ocean freight conditions became increasingly uneven during September, with weakening Asia–Europe rates contrasting with comparatively resilient Transpacific demand. Severe congestion across Asian ports, changing carrier schedules and the gradual return of Suez Canal services continue to complicate the market.
The most significant operational challenge remains congestion across Asia. Regional container vessel schedule reliability fell to just 32.3% in August, with late vessels arriving an average of 7.28 days behind schedule. China’s reliability deteriorated to 23.9%, while Shanghai and Ningbo recorded particularly poor performance at 12.2% and 16.9% respectively.
Successive storms and typhoons have contributed to vessel bunching, displaced equipment and cargo backlogs, reducing effective capacity despite the availability of scheduled vessel space. These disruptions continue to affect Asia–Europe services, with recovery expected to take time.
Freight pricing has nevertheless weakened on Asia–Europe trades. By 8 October, Shanghai–Rotterdam spot rates had declined for 13 consecutive weeks, with a further 2% reduction during the latest week. Shanghai–Genoa remained stable, while the broader World Container Index declined 2% as demand eased during China’s Golden Week holiday.
Transpacific rates also softened during Golden Week, with Shanghai–Los Angeles falling 3% and Shanghai–New York declining 2% week on week. However, underlying demand remains comparatively resilient, supported by US imports and ongoing inventory requirements.
Carrier capacity management is becoming increasingly important. Across the major East–West trades, 34 blank sailings have been announced from 12 October to 15 November, representing approximately 5% of 713 scheduled departures. Half of these cancellations are concentrated on Asia–North Europe and Mediterranean services, with 32% affecting the Transpacific eastbound trade.
The gradual return of services through the Suez Canal is adding another dimension. Shorter routings release effective vessel capacity previously absorbed by Cape of Good Hope diversions, placing further downward pressure on Asia–Europe rates. Carriers are responding with capacity adjustments and planned rate increases for the second half of October, although their ability to sustain higher pricing remains uncertain.
Following Golden Week, the resumption of Chinese manufacturing is expected to generate further schedule adjustments as export volumes recover. With congestion still affecting Asian ports, shippers should treat mid-to-late October schedules cautiously and allow for potential rolled cargo and short-notice changes.
Key points
- Asia–Europe rates weaken: Shanghai–Rotterdam rates have declined for 13 consecutive weeks, with additional pressure from returning Suez services.
- Schedule reliability deteriorates: Asian vessel reliability fell to 32.3%, with Shanghai recording just 12.2% and average late-arrival delays reaching 7.28 days.
- Blank sailings continue: Carriers have announced 34 cancellations across 713 scheduled East–West sailings between 12 October and 15 November, equivalent to 5%.
- Post-holiday uncertainty: Golden Week recovery, port congestion and carrier capacity adjustments could trigger further delays and short-notice schedule changes.
Air freight
End of Golden Week adding to capacity pressure
Airfreight demand remained resilient during September, with technology-related shipments, seasonal inventory movements and continued global trade growth supporting the market ahead of the traditional fourth-quarter peak.
Global air cargo tonnages were approximately 5% higher year on year in late September, while available capacity increased only modestly. This imbalance is supporting pricing, particularly on routes carrying semiconductors, servers and equipment associated with AI and data-centre investment.
September also marked a gradual reversal of the summer’s softer pricing. Average Hong Kong–North America rates increased slightly during the month, while Hong Kong–Europe rates rose approximately 4.8%. Compared with September 2025, prices on these corridors were 31% and 8.8% higher respectively.
The Transpacific remains particularly strong. AI-related infrastructure investment continues to generate substantial demand for high-value technology shipments, supporting volumes from Asia to North America despite wider economic uncertainty.
Asia–Europe conditions are more mixed. Changes to EU low-value import rules introduced in July have reduced some direct e-commerce flows, particularly from Hong Kong. However, demand for machinery, industrial products and technology remains resilient, while some businesses are adjusting their inventory and fulfilment strategies.
Late-September data highlighted these differences. Asia-Pacific air cargo volumes to the US were 14% higher year on year, while volumes to Europe were 8% lower. Pricing nevertheless remained elevated, with Asia-Pacific rates to North America 38% higher than a year earlier and rates to Europe up 25%.
Higher jet-fuel costs are adding further pressure. The Middle East conflict has pushed fuel prices substantially above last year’s levels, increasing airline operating costs even where cargo demand has softened.
The market strengthened further as October began. The global Baltic Air Freight Index increased 5% in the week to 5 October, taking it 25.5% above the previous year. Outbound Hong Kong rates rose 3% week on week, while Shanghai increased 2.2%.
European and North American export markets also firmed. London Heathrow outbound rates increased 28.2% during the week, reflecting stronger demand on selected routes to North America and Southeast Asia, while Chicago outbound pricing rose 9.2%.
With China’s Golden Week temporarily interrupting production and cargo flows, the resumption of exports could create additional pressure on available capacity. Combined with seasonal demand and elevated fuel costs, this increases the importance of securing space early for urgent and high-value shipments.
Key points
- Demand remains resilient: Global air cargo tonnages were approximately 5% higher year on year in late September, supported by technology and industrial shipments.
- September rates strengthen: Hong Kong–Europe pricing increased approximately 4.8% month on month, while Hong Kong–North America remained 31% above last year.
- Transpacific leads growth: Asia-Pacific volumes to North America increased 14% year on year, supported by AI-related infrastructure demand.
- Q4 pricing accelerates: The global Baltic Air Freight Index rose 5% in the week to 5 October, reaching 25.5% above its year-earlier level.
Road freight
Transport costs reach new highs as demand outpaces capacity
Road freight costs continued to rise during September, with strong seasonal demand, higher fuel prices and tightening vehicle availability pushing UK transport pricing to record levels.
The TEG Road Transport Price Index increased 2.24% during the month, reaching its highest level since reporting began in 2019. The index stood 9.26% above September 2025, highlighting the sustained cost pressure affecting domestic distribution.
Haulage prices increased 2.24% month on month and were 11.47% higher year on year. Courier prices also strengthened, rising 2.12% during September and 7.15% compared with the previous year.
Demand was a major driver. Overall transport demand increased 17.48% month on month as businesses began preparing for the peak season. Although transport availability recovered by 14.91% following August’s holiday-related constraints, the increase was insufficient to match demand growth.
Fuel costs are adding substantial pressure. Average UK diesel prices increased 6.02% during September and were 43.68% higher than a year earlier. Petrol prices rose 5.04% month on month, while Brent crude increased approximately 14% during September.
In the US, the trucking market is also entering a new phase. Following an extended period of weak pricing, shrinking capacity and rising operating costs are establishing a higher cost base even though underlying freight demand remains relatively subdued.
Industry forecasts suggest US truckload contract rates could increase approximately 15–20% between the beginning of 2026 and the end of 2027, while spot rates may rise 10–15% over the same period.
The recovery is being driven primarily by reduced carrier and driver availability rather than a sharp increase in freight volumes. Higher fuel, equipment, insurance and employment costs are reinforcing this trend, while tighter regulatory enforcement is further limiting capacity.
For shippers, both markets point towards a more expensive road freight environment. With Q4 demand building, early capacity planning, flexible transport arrangements and close management of inland distribution costs will become increasingly important.
Key points
- UK prices reach record levels: The TEG Index increased 2.24% in September and stood 9.26% above the previous year.
- Demand outpaces capacity: Transport demand rose 17.48% month on month, compared with a 14.91% increase in availability.
- Fuel costs accelerate: UK diesel prices increased 6.02% during September and were 43.68% higher year on year.
- US capacity tightens: Contract truckload rates are forecast to rise 15–20% between early 2026 and the end of 2027 as carrier capacity contracts.
Planning ahead
The final quarter of 2026 is shaping up to be a challenging period for international freight planning. Demand remains resilient across several major markets, but higher operating costs, uneven capacity and continuing disruption are creating significant differences between individual trade lanes.
For shippers, softer ocean pricing on some routes offers opportunities, while tightening airfreight and road transport conditions reinforce the importance of planning ahead. Schedule reliability, effective capacity and total landed costs remain as important as headline freight rates.
Global Forwarding combines the international reach of the Hecny Group with established carrier relationships, multimodal expertise and local market knowledge to help customers respond to changing conditions.
Whether you are managing Asia–Europe ocean disruption, securing peak-season airfreight capacity or reviewing inland transport requirements, our teams can help identify practical alternatives, improve visibility and maintain supply-chain continuity.
