Air freight markets are entering a more constrained and complex phase, as disruption to jet fuel supply chains begins to directly impact capacity, pricing and network reliability.
What initially appeared as a regional issue has developed into a broader structural challenge, with fuel availability and cost now shaping how global air cargo operates.
The core issue lies in refined product supply rather than crude availability. Jet fuel prices have risen significantly faster than oil benchmarks as disruption has constrained refining output, export flows and replenishment cycles.
Europe is particularly exposed. Around 75% of the region’s jet fuel supply is linked to the Middle East, and industry bodies have warned that shortages could begin to affect operations from the end of May if supply routes are not stabilised. In response, the European Commission is considering measures such as reserve requirements, redistribution mechanisms and closer oversight of refinery activity.
In Asia, the situation is being compounded by reduced refinery throughput. As crude flows are disrupted and refineries shift towards lighter grades, output of middle distillates such as jet fuel and diesel is declining. Refinery runs are expected to fall from 30.4 million barrels per day in March to around 28.5 million in April and May, with potential losses of up to 1 million barrels per day of diesel and jet fuel supply in the near term.
Capacity adjustments reflect rising cost pressure
The impact on air cargo capacity is now clearly visible. Carriers are adjusting networks to manage higher operating costs and constrained fuel availability.
A leading Asian airline has announced capacity reductions of around 2% from mid-May through June, alongside the suspension of selected Middle East routes. Similar actions are being taken across the industry, with major US, Indian and Asia-Pacific carriers reducing frequencies and tightening network deployment.
Capacity across the Middle East and South Asia (MESA) region remains structurally constrained. Despite gradual rebuilding, available capacity is still around 33% below year-earlier levels. At the same time, demand has remained resilient, with MESA tonnages approximately 5% higher year on year, contributing to sustained pressure on rates.
Rates rise as fuel and capacity constraints combine
The combined effect of constrained capacity and rising fuel costs is being reflected in pricing. From MESA origins, average spot rates have increased by 66% year on year, while rates to Europe have risen by 89%.
Carriers are also adjusting pricing mechanisms to reflect changing cost dynamics. A leading Hong Kong airline has introduced a revised cargo fuel surcharge structure, including a new medium-haul category, highlighting how fuel costs now vary significantly by route length and operating profile.
Asia and Gulf-linked origins are operating from a higher fuel cost base than North America, reflecting their proximity to disrupted refining and export systems. As a result, shipments from China, Hong Kong, Singapore and other Asian origins into Europe are carrying increased cost pressure from the outset.
Traditional demand-driven pricing cycles are being replaced by a model where fuel access, network design and capacity discipline are the primary drivers of market behaviour.
Maintaining reliability in a constrained market
In this environment, securing capacity is no longer just about space availability. It requires careful routing, flexibility and real-time decision-making.
Global Forwarding supports customers by combining global air freight capability with local market expertise to navigate fuel-driven disruption. Through access to a diversified carrier network and alternative routing strategies, shipments can be redirected to avoid constrained hubs and optimise transit performance.
Our teams monitor capacity, fuel trends and network conditions in real time, enabling proactive adjustments to routing and scheduling. This ensures cargo continues to move efficiently, even as conditions shift.
By aligning transport planning with evolving fuel dynamics, Hecny helps customers manage cost exposure, maintain service reliability and adapt quickly in a market where flexibility is essential.
