Bunker fuel availability, not just vessel capacity, is now shaping how ocean networks operate and how costs are set, as disruption linked to the Strait of Hormuz creates regional imbalances across key trade lanes.
While global oil supply remains sufficient overall, the distribution of refined marine fuel has become uneven. The result is a market where access to bunker fuel varies significantly by location, with Asia emerging as the most exposed region.
The reduction in seaborne crude flows through Hormuz, estimated at around 16%, is limiting feedstock availability for refineries, particularly in Asia where dependence on Gulf supply is high. At the same time, bunker markets have decoupled from crude benchmarks.
In Asia, prices for very low-sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO), particularly in Singapore and Hong Kong, have increased by 70% or more, driven by constrained supply and rising demand linked to vessel rerouting. In contrast, Northern European and eastern U.S. ports have seen more moderate increases of around 40–50%, reflecting stronger supply resilience and less direct exposure to disruption.
This divergence is being intensified by changes in vessel routing. Cape diversions are increasing voyage distances and driving up fuel consumption by an estimated 15–20% per journey, concentrating demand in already constrained bunkering hubs. At the same time, reduced export availability from China is removing a key source of supply balance in the region.
Availability, not just price, becomes the key constraint
The market challenge is shifting from cost alone to physical availability. VLSFO, required for compliance across most of the global fleet, is becoming unevenly distributed, limiting flexibility in bunkering strategies and increasing operational risk.
Carriers are adapting by changing refuelling patterns, including bunkering in Europe and carrying fuel into Asia to mitigate supply uncertainty. While effective, this approach adds complexity to network planning and increases working capital tied up in fuel.
Fleet configuration also plays a role. Around 40% of the global container fleet is equipped with scrubbers and can operate on high-sulphur fuel oil, which remains more widely available. However, the majority of vessels still depend on VLSFO, restricting the industry’s ability to respond quickly to shifting supply conditions.
As pressure builds, bunkering lead times are extending, port options are narrowing and contingency planning is becoming more critical. Early signs of strain are already visible across secondary bunkering locations, where tighter supply is beginning to affect scheduling flexibility.
Rising bunker costs reset freight pricing
Fuel has now become the dominant cost driver for ocean carriers. Existing bunker adjustment factor (BAF) mechanisms, which rely on trailing averages, have not yet fully captured the scale of recent increases.
In the short term, this gap is being addressed through spot rate volatility and the introduction of emergency fuel and war-risk surcharges. As BAF calculations adjust in the coming months, the underlying cost base is expected to rise further, even if bunker prices stabilise.
This marks a structural shift in ocean freight pricing. Rates are increasingly being driven by fuel dynamics rather than traditional supply-demand balance alone.
If disruption continues, the impact will extend beyond pricing. Constraints on fuel availability could begin to influence vessel deployment decisions, tightening effective capacity and extending transit times across major trade lanes.
With fuel now a defining constraint in global shipping, Hecny Forwarding enables customers to maintain cargo flow through proactive route planning, close carrier coordination and real-time visibility of network and fuel dynamics. By aligning routing strategies with evolving bunker availability, we help control costs and respond quickly to changing conditions.
