Air freight markets are moving into a more stable phase following the restoration of Middle East operations, but underlying conditions remain firm. Capacity is improving, yet not at a pace that allows rates to normalise.
The result is a market that is calmer than during the height of disruption, but still defined by limited space, elevated pricing, and ongoing operational challenges.
For shippers, this creates a more predictable—but still costly—environment.
The reopening of key Gulf hubs has re-established critical global connections, particularly for Asia-Europe cargo flows. Airlines have increased frequencies and rebuilt schedules, helping to ease some of the pressure seen earlier in the year.
However, the recovery is not uniform. Some routes remain constrained, and longer flight paths continue to impact capacity efficiency. These factors mean that while networks are operational, they are not yet fully optimised.
As a result, capacity remains tight relative to demand.
Pricing holds firm despite improvements
One of the most notable features of the current market is the resilience of freight rates.
Even with additional capacity returning, rates have only softened slightly and remain well above last year’s levels. Asia-Europe pricing, in particular, continues to reflect the structural imbalance between supply and demand.
Short-term fluctuations persist, but there has been no significant correction, highlighting the limited flexibility within the system.
Unlike previous peaks driven by sudden surges, current demand is steady and sector-driven.
Technology-related cargo continues to underpin volumes, including electronics, semiconductors, and infrastructure supporting digital expansion. E-commerce flows are also evolving, with regulatory changes influencing how and where goods are shipped.
Overall volume growth is modest, but in a constrained market, consistency is enough to maintain pressure on capacity.
Fuel and cost dynamics remain uncertain
Energy markets have stabilised following recent geopolitical developments, leading to some reduction in jet fuel prices and associated surcharges.
However, fuel costs are still significantly higher than historical averages, and their influence on pricing remains substantial. In addition, the lag between fuel price movements and surcharge adjustments continues to create challenges for cost forecasting.
This means that while some relief is visible, cost predictability is still limited.
Planning in a constrained environment
The air freight market is entering a phase where stability does not equate to normality.
Capacity limitations, sustained demand, and elevated costs are likely to remain defining characteristics in the near term. Businesses must adapt by improving planning accuracy, securing space earlier, and maintaining flexibility in routing and carrier selection.
Global Forwarding works with customers to overcome challenging conditions through tailored air freight solutions, real-time visibility, and proactive capacity management.
If you are facing ongoing air freight cost pressures or capacity constraints, contact Global Forwarding to build a more resilient and responsive logistics strategy.
