The transpacific market is entering September with pressure building at both ends of the journey. Resilient US imports are supporting ocean demand, while rising intra-Asia costs and congestion are complicating the movement of cargo towards export gateways. Once containers reach the US, tighter rail and trucking conditions create another potential constraint.
The result is a market where securing the ocean leg is only part of the challenge.
With China’s Golden Week approaching, shippers increasingly need to consider how cargo reaches the export port, which US gateway provides the best overall option and how containers will move inland after discharge.
The strongest solution may not necessarily be the sailing with the lowest ocean freight rate.
Asian pressure starts before the main voyage
Conditions within Asia are becoming increasingly important to transpacific planning.
Drewry’s Intra-Asia Container Index increased 10% in the week to 27 August, its fourth consecutive weekly rise. The index has reached a three-year high, with rates increasing across most of the major trades as poor weather adds to congestion in China and Middle East disruption tightens the wider market.
For transpacific shippers, these regional conditions matter. Manufacturing supply chains do not always begin at the port where the transpacific vessel sails. Components and finished products can move between Asian markets before consolidation and export, making feeder connections, equipment availability and regional capacity part of the wider supply-chain picture.
Disruption upstream can therefore affect whether cargo reaches its planned mother vessel – even when space has already been secured on the main transpacific leg.
The expected US slowdown has yet to arrive
Earlier expectations suggested extensive front-loading ahead of US tariff changes would cause imports to fall sharply during August. Instead, demand has proved more resilient.
US imports from Asia are expected to remain relatively strong into September, while carriers are planning approximately 2.24 million TEU of transpacific capacity to the US during the month, only around 1% below August. West Coast capacity is expected to increase approximately 2.5%.
Tariffs remain an important factor, but front-loading is no longer the only source of demand.
Industrial cargo associated with electrification, renewable energy and rapid investment in US AI infrastructure is adding to container flows, while retail demand has also held up more strongly than anticipated.
That combination is extending a peak that many expected to fade earlier.
Rates reflect a market that remains firm
Recent freight movements underline the strength of the transpacific market.
Drewry’s World Container Index increased 4% in the week to 20 August, driven by higher transpacific rates. The increase followed a 1% rise the previous week, which was also attributed to the transpacific trade.
Carriers are also continuing to use blank sailings to manage available capacity. Drewry identified 49 cancelled sailings across the major East–West trades between weeks 35 and 39, equivalent to around 6% of scheduled departures.
With Golden Week approaching in early October, the combination of sustained demand, Asian congestion and active capacity management could maintain pressure through September.
Panama adds another routing variable
Restrictions at the Panama Canal introduce an additional consideration, particularly for Asia–US East Coast cargo.
Reduced daily transit availability could affect vessel schedules and routing decisions as September progresses. Services with reserved slots may initially avoid substantial delays, but less available transit capacity reduces flexibility if schedules are disrupted.
For shippers, the significance extends beyond the canal itself. If cargo shifts from East Coast services towards West Coast gateways, containers still need to cross the US. That can transfer pressure from ocean networks onto rail and trucking at precisely the point when inland capacity is already tightening.
Port choice therefore becomes an end-to-end transport decision rather than simply an ocean freight decision.
The next bottleneck could be inland
US domestic intermodal volumes increased more than 7% year on year during the first half of 2026, helping overall intermodal traffic grow 2.5%.
Part of that increase reflects conditions in the truckload market. Higher trucking costs and tighter capacity are encouraging some shippers to reconsider rail intermodal for longer inland movements.
Rail networks have absorbed the additional volume relatively well, but pressure is becoming more visible where ocean, rail and road networks meet.
Longer terminal gate times, tighter chassis availability and restricted appointment availability can quickly turn a smooth ocean movement into an inland delay. California gateways and some Chicago rail ramps are among the locations experiencing additional pressure.
Individually, these constraints may remain manageable. The greater risk comes when several occur simultaneously as peak-season volumes build.
The Atlantic is tightening for different reasons
Capacity management is also shaping the westbound transatlantic, although the demand picture differs considerably from the transpacific.
Carriers have responded to declining North Europe–US volumes by withdrawing capacity. Almost 9% was removed during August, with a further reduction of around 9% expected in September.
Shipping lines are consequently attempting to introduce September rate increases and peak-season surcharges, alongside higher European inland fuel and intermodal charges.
How much of those increases carriers can sustain will depend on whether capacity reductions remain sufficient to counter weaker underlying demand.
It reinforces a wider market trend: available capacity, rather than demand alone, is increasingly determining freight conditions.
Think beyond port to port
The emerging transpacific picture stretches from intra-Asia feeder movements and Chinese export gateways through ocean capacity and US port choice to rail ramps, chassis and final trucking capacity.
Optimising one section without considering the next can simply move the problem further along the supply chain.
A cheaper sailing loses its advantage if congestion creates additional storage and demurrage costs. An alternative gateway only works if suitable inland capacity is available. And securing transpacific vessel space achieves little if upstream disruption prevents the container reaching the vessel.
That makes flexibility across origins, gateways, carriers and inland modes particularly valuable as Golden Week approaches.
Connect Asia and America with one strategy
The Hecny Group’s extensive Asian presence provides local expertise across many of the manufacturing, sourcing and consolidation markets feeding transpacific trade. In the United States, Global Forwarding provides the destination-side capability to support cargo beyond the port.
Together, that creates the opportunity to look at the complete movement, from Asian origin and consolidation through ocean routing and gateway selection to onward US delivery.
As transpacific pressure spreads beyond the main ocean leg, fragmented planning creates unnecessary risk. Talk to Global Forwarding about building your Asia–US strategy from origin onwards. Using our strength across Asia and destination creates the routing, capacity and inland options that keep your cargo moving from supplier to final destination.
