Over the coming weeks, 48 cancelled sailings have been announced across the major East-West headhaul trades: Transpacific, Transatlantic, and Asia-North Europe & Mediterranean.
Cancellations account for 7% of the total 693 scheduled sailings between the 11th November and the 15th December. The majority of blank sailings (58%) are concentrated on the Transpacific Eastbound trade, followed by 29% on the Transatlantic Westbound and 13% on the Asia-North Europe & Mediterranean routes.
Among the alliances, OCEAN Alliance and THE Alliance have each announced nine cancellations during this period, while 2M Alliance has scheduled four blank sailings. Non-alliance services are also a significant factor, accounting for 26 blank sailings.
Despite these capacity adjustments, schedule reliability has improved overall, with 93% of vessels expected to sail as planned in the next five weeks. Notably, 2M Alliance leads with a 97% reliability rate during this period.
Spot rate indices have seen a 7% week-on-week increase, driven by a 19% surge on Asia-North Europe/Med routes, while Transpacific rates remained stable and Transatlantic rates saw a slight decline of 2%.
Carriers have successfully implemented rate increases over the past two weeks, supported by general rate increases (GRIs) and capacity cuts. However, maintaining these rate levels may prove challenging as the market enters the slack season. Further rate hikes are anticipated, particularly on the Asia-North Europe/Med lanes, where contract rate negotiations are ongoing, and spot rate fluctuations heavily influence long-term agreements.
In the Transpacific market, potential shifts in U.S. trade policy could influence demand, as importers may accelerate shipments ahead of potential tariff changes, increasing short-term demand and putting upward pressure on rates.
We will continue to monitor the market closely and keep you updated, as additional blank sailings may be deployed to support carrier rate strategies during this volatile period.
While demand for ocean freight is expected to soften towards the end of the year, the combination of blanked sailings and unpredictable peak season dynamics means the market remains difficult to navigate.
Shippers are encouraged to plan ahead and share forecasts to secure space on vessels and maintain supply chain efficiency during these volatile times.
To discuss how we can support and protect your ocean supply chain, please EMAIL Andy Costara.
